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> NATIONALS 2014 PREDICTIONS, Now with fancy-dancey exhaustive poll
TinDefacto
post Apr 16 2014, 09:00 AM
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So there are less than two weeks until Nationals kick off in Hawaii!! popcorn.gif

I have made a new predictions poll that is more exhaustive than ever. Take it to your heart's content. You can choose how far in-depth you want to go. Everyone should get a link at the end to the results, and I'll be updating this post every once in a while with stats and stuff.

HERE IT IS!! ENJOY! biggrin.gif

Current Standings as of 2:00pm EDT on April 22, 2014:

Most popular sequence:
1. El Camino Real Charter (38% confidence) with a 52k score (50% confidence)
2. Granada Hills Charter (44% confidence) with a 52k score (60% confidence)
3. Rockwall (56% confidence) with a 52k score (43% confidence)
4. Pearland (69% confidence) with a 49k score (40% confidence)
5. Canyon Del Oro (45% confidence) with a 47k score (44% confidence)
6. Boulder Creek (60% confidence) with a 46k score (50% confidence)
7. Whitney Young (40% confidence) with a 45k score (38% confidence)
8. Oakwood (50% confidence) with a 45k score (43% confidence)
9. Acton-Boxborough (38% confidence) with a 43k score (29% confidence) or a 45k score (29% confidence)
10. North Penn (38% confidence) with a 43k score (43% confidence)

National Champions (32 votes):
1. El Camino Real Charter - 12 votes (38%)
2. Rockwall - 10 votes (31%)
3. Granada Hills Charter - 9 votes (28%)
4. Pearland - 1 vote (2%)

Runners-Up (32 votes):
1. Granada Hills Charter - 14 votes (44%)
2. El Camino Real Charter - 12 votes (38%)
3. Rockwall - 6 votes (19%)

Third (32 votes):
1. Rockwall - 18 votes (56%)
2. Granada Hills Charter - 12 votes (38%)
3. El Camino Real Charter - 2 vote (6%)

---below this line updated as of April 17---
Fourth (8 votes)
1. Pearland - 6 votes (75%)
2. Oakwood - 1 vote (12.5%)
2. Granada Hills Charter - 1 vote (12.5%)

Fifth (7 votes)
1. Canyon Del Oro - 4 votes (57%)
2. Boulder Creek - 2 votes (29%)_
3. Whitney Young - 1 vote (14%)

Sixth (6 votes)
1. Boulder Creek - 4 votes (67%)
2. Canyon Del Oro - 2 votes (33%)

Seventh (6 votes)
1. Whitney Young - 2 votes (33%)
1. Oakwood - 2 votes (33%)
2. Acton-Boxborough - 1 vote (17%)
2. Canyon Del Oro - 1 vote (17%)

Eighth (5 votes)
1. Oakwood - 2 votes (40%)
1. Lincoln Pius X - 2 votes (40%)
2. Acton-Boxborough - 1 vote (20%)

Ninth (6 votes)
1. Acton-Boxborugh - 3 votes (50%)
2. Whitney Young - 2 votes (33%)
3. Oakwood - 1 vote (17%)

Tenth (6 votes)
1. North Penn - 3 votes (50%)
2. Waukesha West - 2 votes (33%)
3. Lincoln Pius X - 1 vote (17%)

This post has been edited by madcap: Apr 22 2014, 06:03 PM
Reason for edit: Update! :)
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Guest_AK_WDB_*
post Apr 16 2014, 05:46 PM
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Lulz at all the Rockwall predictions. Sorry guys, I want to see CA lose as much as anyone, but I sure wouldn't put money on it.
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TinDefacto
post Apr 16 2014, 06:45 PM
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They have a much stronger chance than what a lot of people are giving them credit for--the test difficulty at Texas State was much greater than that in California, and Rockwall had State nearly a full month before California did. Whether or not they'll win, they're sure to be damn close, and they'll put up one hell of a fight.
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Guest_AK_WDB_*
post Apr 16 2014, 11:23 PM
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QUOTE (TinDefacto @ Apr 16 2014, 09:45 AM) *
They have a much stronger chance than what a lot of people are giving them credit for--the test difficulty at Texas State was much greater than that in California, and Rockwall had State nearly a full month before California did. Whether or not they'll win, they're sure to be damn close, and they'll put up one hell of a fight.

Most people on this board have not seen Texas's longer preparation time as an advantage, but in fact the opposite - it's harder to keep up the motivation to study for two months than one. But if the tests really were harder, that's another story.
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TinDefacto
post Apr 17 2014, 12:39 AM
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They were most definitely harder.

Also, can people please stop filling in one team for first, second and third? xD
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Guest_Allan21996_*
post Apr 17 2014, 05:50 AM
Post #6





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1. ECR 52.8xx
2. GHC 52,3xx
3. Rockwall 52,2xx
4. Pearland 49,8xx
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Guest_Gear_*
post Apr 17 2014, 01:09 PM
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QUOTE (AK_WDB @ Apr 16 2014, 12:46 PM) *
Lulz at all the Rockwall predictions. Sorry guys, I want to see CA lose as much as anyone, but I sure wouldn't put money on it.

This.
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Guest_Herohito_*
post Apr 17 2014, 01:14 PM
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Well, I wouldn't put my money on it, but I'd rather see a non-CA championship for once.

GL Rockwall, and may the Force be with you.


QUOTE (Gear @ Apr 17 2014, 06:09 AM) *
QUOTE (AK_WDB @ Apr 16 2014, 12:46 PM) *
Lulz at all the Rockwall predictions. Sorry guys, I want to see CA lose as much as anyone, but I sure wouldn't put money on it.

This.

What role do you currently play on the Rockwall team? Are you the coach, or do you do something else?

This post has been edited by Herohito: Apr 17 2014, 01:16 PM
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Guest_Gear_*
post Apr 17 2014, 01:38 PM
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QUOTE (Herohito @ Apr 17 2014, 08:14 AM) *
Well, I wouldn't put my money on it, but I'd rather see a non-CA championship for once.

GL Rockwall, and may the Force be with you.


QUOTE (Gear @ Apr 17 2014, 06:09 AM) *
QUOTE (AK_WDB @ Apr 16 2014, 12:46 PM) *
Lulz at all the Rockwall predictions. Sorry guys, I want to see CA lose as much as anyone, but I sure wouldn't put money on it.

This.

What role do you currently play on the Rockwall team? Are you the coach, or do you do something else?

I am advanced academics coordinator for the district. The team continues to use the preparation system I developed although I am no longer in the classroom. We've had three different coaching staffs in the last three years. Alvarado and Pauken have done a great job this year.
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Guest_AK_WDB_*
post Apr 17 2014, 03:00 PM
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QUOTE (Gear @ Apr 17 2014, 05:38 AM) *
We've had three different coaching staffs in the last three years.

This makes Rockwall's three consecutive state wins all the more impressive. Normally coach turnover isn't good for a team's prospects.
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stanleytree
post Apr 17 2014, 03:43 PM
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Gear downplays his role I'm sure. He seems more like an Emperor Palpatine figure smile.gif

(and yes, I will finish the darn thread at some point. I've decided that on top of my three preps and girls soccer, I am also doing WHAP review after school. Yes I am not a smart man.)
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Guest_Allan21996_*
post Apr 17 2014, 09:48 PM
Post #12





Guests






Individuals:

Honors
1. Shivam Dave(Pearland)
2. Jenny Baek(GHC)
3. Rebecca Voth(Rockwall)
4. Justin Chau(ECR)
5. Hope Wallace(Rockwall)
6. Stevin Jin(A-cool.gif
7. Kaillin Li(GHC)
8. Ben Thompson(Willoughby)
9. Jerry Zhao(North Penn)
10. Thasneem Syed(ECR)

Scholastics
1. Drew Troxler(Rockwall)
2. Sandra Vadhin(ECR)
3. Christian Ual(GHC)
4. Peter Cho(GHC)
5. Eric Yu(ECR)
6. Evan Cedor(Rockwall)
7. Melissa Cheng(ECR)
8. Marcella Saboe(Pearland)
9. Maria Elena Pakulis(CDO)
10. Miguel Pacheco(Rockwall)

Varsities
1. Rohan Boone(ECR)
2. Brandon Slater(ECR)
3. Jose Apolaya(ECR)
4. Savannah Rios(GHC)
5. Jenean Docter(GHC)
6. Mason Natale(Pearland)
7. Enrico Trevisani(Rockwall)
8. Sean Wurr(Boulder Creek)
9. Sarah Jester(Rockwall)
10. Mayson Lee(GHC)


Disclosure: Whitney Young is probably going to wreck this list completely, but ehh. Also although Mason and Enrico are listed as #'s 6 and 7, I really hope they prove me wrong.

This post has been edited by Allan21996: Apr 18 2014, 04:23 AM
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Guest_FBGM24_*
post Apr 18 2014, 12:50 AM
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Guests






My Prediction

Overall
1. El Camino: 52,100
2. Granada Hills: 51,600
3. Rockwall: 51,300

Individuals
Honors:
1. Shivam Dave (Pearland)
2. Jenny Baek (Granada)
3. Hope Wallace (Rockwall)

Scholastic:
1. Sandra Vadhin (El Camino)
2. Peter Cho (Granada)
3. Drew Troxler (Rockwall)

Varsity:
1. Rohan Boone (El Camino)
2. Brandon Slater (El Camino)
3. Savanah Rios (Granada)

This post has been edited by FBGM24: Apr 18 2014, 07:08 AM
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Guest_masonsbro_*
post Apr 18 2014, 01:48 AM
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I haven't been following California's scores too closely, but I think that Lil Thug from Pearland will be the top Honors scorer. And I think that Mason Natale (also from Pearland) will be in the top 5 Varsities.
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TinDefacto
post Apr 18 2014, 01:54 AM
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QUOTE (FBGM24 @ Apr 17 2014, 08:50 PM) *
My Prediction
Individuals
Honors:
3. Sally Jiao (West Windsor)

Sally Jiao is from West Windsor-Plainsboro South, whereas West Windsor-Plainsboro North is the one advancing to Nationals. She will not be there, unfortunately. :/
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Guest_FBGM24_*
post Apr 18 2014, 07:05 AM
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QUOTE (TinDefacto @ Apr 17 2014, 06:54 PM) *
QUOTE (FBGM24 @ Apr 17 2014, 08:50 PM) *
My Prediction
Individuals
Honors:
3. Sally Jiao (West Windsor)

Sally Jiao is from West Windsor-Plainsboro South, whereas West Windsor-Plainsboro North is the one advancing to Nationals. She will not be there, unfortunately. :/


Wow that is very unfortunate. I'll make the necessary edit to my previous post.
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madcap
post Apr 20 2014, 10:36 PM
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QUOTE (FBGM24 @ Apr 17 2014, 07:50 PM) *
Varsity:
3. Savanah Rios (Granada)


Do you have any idea how she and Docter Who performed relative to each other at state? Did one beat the other by a significant amount? Or was it just a small 100-point-ish difference like at regionals? With Rios in the lead?

I can't believe it's this weekend! Wooohooo!
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Guest_Allan21996_*
post Apr 21 2014, 12:39 AM
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I just realized GHC finished 3rd at county, 2nd at regionals and 2nd at state. They are going into nationals without winning a major competition all year.
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TinDefacto
post Apr 21 2014, 09:24 AM
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So it's seeming to me like the winner (and probably runners-up as well) will be borderline 53k. I don't think this is a particularly inflated year; we just have some really freaking incredible teams this season. This will be insanely close.

Who do I think will win? I really have no idea. ECR at first glance seems the main contender, of course, having won all of State nationally. But GHC is right behind them, and them being GHC, they do have a chance at jumping them for first. But then there's Rockwall. It's easy to disregard Rockwall here because the California teams beat them by over 1,000 points. But they are not to be underestimated. The Texas tests were harder than the California ones, at over 100 points per person--probably close to 150. Plus, Rockwall took the tests a month earlier. Sure, that may be a bad thing rather than good thing in terms of keeping motivated when preparing for Nationals, but this isn't your normal Texas team. If they don't win, then they'll surely be closer than what a lot of people are expecting.

Anyway, individual scores are fun.

Honors
1. Shivam Dave, Pearland, ~9.2k
2. Hope Wallace, Rockwall
3. Rebecca Voth, Rockwal
4. Jenny Baek, Granada Hills Charter
5. Steven Jin, Acton-Boxborough, ~9.1k

Scholastic
1. Drew Troxler, Rockwall, ~9k
2. Peter Cho, Granada Hills Charter
3. Sandra Vadhin, El Camino Real Charter
4. Evan Cedor, Rockwall
5. Christian Ual, Granada Hills Charter, ~8.8k

Varsity
1. Rohan Boone, El Camino Real Charter, ~9k (but lower than State)
2. Savanah Rios, Granada Hills Charter
3. Enrico Trevisani, Rockwall
4. Jenean Docter, Granada Hills Charter
5. Mason Natale, Pearland, ~8.6k

(No, I haven't forgotten about Brandon Slater)

Rest of Top Ten Team
4. Pearland, Texas, low 50k
5. Boulder Creek, Arizona, low 47k
6. Canyon del Oro, Arizona, mid 46k (the competition between the two Arizona teams should be awesome)
7. Oakwood, Ohio, low 46k (<3)
8. Acton-Boxborough, Massachusetts, mid-45k (great team, and one member's thoughts on noodles is fantastic)
9. Whitney Young, Illinois, low-45k (not much has been known of them this year, as usual, but they'll probably go up a fair amount from their State score)
10. North Penn, Pennsylvania (norly), high 44k

DII
1. Lincoln Pius X, Nebraska, low 44k
2. Parsippany, New Jersey, low 42k
3. Willoughby South, Ohio, high 41k
4. Waukesha West, Wisconsin, mid 41k
5. Madison Central, Mississippi, low 41k

Honors:
1. Ben Thompson, Willoughby South, 8.7k
2. Stephen Kotopka, Lincoln Pius X
3. Daria Soboleva, Willoughby South, 8.2k

Scholastic:
1. Beatrice Braeuer, Scarborough, 8.2k
2. Vern Warnock, Hilo
3. Lincoln Pius X, 7.7k

Varsity:
1. Lincoln Pius X, 7.4k
2. Madison Central
3. Lincoln Pius X, 6.7k

DIII
1. Oakwood, Ohio, low 46k (<3)
2. Madison Academic, Tennessee, low 42k
3. Collegiate Academy, Pennsylvania, low 41k
4. Kamehameha, Hawaii, low 39k
5. Wheatland, Wyoming, 35k

Honors:
1. William Powers, Oakwood, 8.6k
2. Emmaline Bennett, Oakwood
3. Samantha Galla, Collegiate Academy, 8.3k

Scholastic:
1. Will Fitz, Oakwood, 8.2k
2. Caleb Branton, Collegiate Academy
3. Grant Pitarys, Oakwood, 7.6k

Varsity:
1. Sage Constantinou, Kamehameha, 7.3k
2. Tim McCarthy, Oakwood
3. Madison Academic, 7k

This post has been edited by TinDefacto: Apr 21 2014, 09:26 AM
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madcap
post Apr 21 2014, 01:48 PM
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Looking at scores for each test (even in Texas), I feel like 2014 is more of an inflated year, just like 2012. Nationals 2013 was also flukey with scores stagnating but they go up most years.

So I predict the following scores (no Super Quiz included). Call me a crackpot.

ECR 54,143
Granada 53,244
Rockwall 52,754

Dave 9,380
Baek 9,279
Voth 9,221

Ual 8,991
Troxler 8,953
Vadhin 8,938

Boone 9,203
Docter 8,896
Slater 8,879
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