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> TAD 2014: a record-breaking year?
TAD 2014: a record-breaking year?
Texas Champion
Clear Lake [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Dobie [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Friendswood [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Highland Park [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Nimitz [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Pearland [ 1 ] ** [5.00%]
Rockwall [ 19 ] ** [95.00%]
Rockwall-Heath [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Texas Runner-Up
Clear Lake [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Dobie [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Friendswood [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Highland Park [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Nimitz [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Pearland [ 19 ] ** [95.00%]
Rockwall [ 1 ] ** [5.00%]
Rockwall-Heath [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Third Overall in Texas
Clear Lake [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Dobie [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Friendswood [ 11 ] ** [55.00%]
Highland Park [ 5 ] ** [25.00%]
Nimitz [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Pearland [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Rockwall [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Rockwall-Heath [ 4 ] ** [20.00%]
Fourth Overall in Texas
Clear Lake [ 5 ] ** [25.00%]
Dobie [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Friendswood [ 6 ] ** [30.00%]
Highland Park [ 3 ] ** [15.00%]
Nimitz [ 3 ] ** [15.00%]
Pearland [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Rockwall [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Rockwall-Heath [ 3 ] ** [15.00%]
Fifth Overall in Texas
Clear Lake [ 3 ] ** [15.00%]
Dobie [ 1 ] ** [5.00%]
Friendswood [ 2 ] ** [10.00%]
Highland Park [ 4 ] ** [20.00%]
Nimitz [ 3 ] ** [15.00%]
Pearland [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Rockwall [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Rockwall-Heath [ 7 ] ** [35.00%]
State Champion Score
<50,000 [ 2 ] ** [10.00%]
50,000-50,999 [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
51,000-51,999 [ 8 ] ** [40.00%]
52,000-52,999 [ 9 ] ** [45.00%]
53,000+ [ 1 ] ** [5.00%]
State Runner-Up Score
<49,000 [ 1 ] ** [5.00%]
49,000-49,999 [ 4 ] ** [20.00%]
50,000-50,999 [ 10 ] ** [50.00%]
51,000-51,999 [ 5 ] ** [25.00%]
52,000+ [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Honors Champion Score
<9,000 [ 2 ] ** [10.00%]
9,000-9,099 [ 1 ] ** [5.00%]
9,100-9,199 [ 4 ] ** [20.00%]
9,200-9,299 [ 5 ] ** [25.00%]
9,300-9,399 [ 5 ] ** [25.00%]
9,400-9,461.4 [ 3 ] ** [15.00%]
9,461.5+ [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Scholastic Champion Score
<8,500 [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
8,500-8,599 [ 3 ] ** [15.00%]
8,600-8,699 [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
8,700-8,799 [ 2 ] ** [10.00%]
8,800-8,899 [ 8 ] ** [40.00%]
8,900-8,999 [ 4 ] ** [20.00%]
9,000+ [ 3 ] ** [15.00%]
Varsity Champion Score
<8,000 [ 1 ] ** [5.00%]
8,000-8,099 [ 2 ] ** [10.00%]
8,100-8,199 [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
8,200-8,299 [ 3 ] ** [15.00%]
8,300-8,399 [ 6 ] ** [30.00%]
8,400-8,499 [ 3 ] ** [15.00%]
8,500+ [ 5 ] ** [25.00%]
Total Votes: 20
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madcap
post Feb 18 2014, 06:56 AM
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Yay San Antonio 2014! What do you think will happen this weekend?

I wanted to include many poll questions, but ran out of room. Feel free to suggest more and I'll edit this post.

Who will win Medium Schools?

How many people will join the 9k club? (I recommend reading the 2012 state predictions thread. We got so excited and were so wrong. tongue.gif )

How many perfect 1,000's on written tests will come out of this competition?

And, most importantly, how many teams will break 40k? 45k?
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madcap
post Feb 18 2014, 07:21 AM
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QUOTE (madcap @ Feb 18 2014, 01:56 AM) *
I wanted to include many poll questions, but ran out of room. Feel free to suggest more and I'll edit this post.

Who will win Medium Schools?

How many people will join the 9k club? (I recommend reading the 2012 state predictions thread. We got so excited and were so wrong. tongue.gif)

How many perfect 1,000's on written tests will come out of this competition?

And, most importantly, how many teams will break 40k? 45k?


My other predictions:

MS champion: Friendswood
9k'ers: 2
Perfect 1,000's: 6
40k teams: 30
45k teams: 9 (Rockwall 52k, Pearland 50k, Friendswood 48k, Rockwall-Heath 47k, HP 47k, Clear Lake 46k, Dobie 46k, Nimitz 46k, then hopefully some dark horse just over 45k. Clements?)

TinDefacto:
Why do you have Clear Lake over Rockwall-Heath, which is much more experienced? That's intriguing.
I almost, almost put 9,2xx for top honors. You might end up calling it.
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TinDefacto
post Feb 18 2014, 07:54 AM
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Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhh the excitement!!

1. ROCKWALL HIGH SCHOOL - 52,389.2
REBECCA VOTH - 9,124.3
RYAN ROCK - 8,933.7
HOPE WALLACE - 8,910.4
DREW TROXLER - 8,941.8
EVAN CEDOR - 8,857.2
MIGUEL PACHECO - 8,822.1
ENRICO TREVISANI - 8,613.4
SARAH JESTER - 7,918.6
GRANT WORKINGS - 7,748.4

2. PEARLAND HIGH SCHOOL - 50,571.7
ETHAN ARNOLD - 8,482.9
RAJAN DESAI - 8,817.2
SHIVAM DAVE - 9,273.4
MARCELLA SABOE - 8,155.7
SAMUEL HOLMES - 8,274.6
ZACHARY WATSON - 8,072.3
NICHOLAI TWYMAN - 7,909.0
MASON NATALE - 8,141.8
KAITLYN HARBUCK - 7,448.8

3. FRIENDSWOOD HIGH SCHOOL - 48,868.7
DEREK JANAK - 9,021.4
ROMA PRADHAN - 8,768.3
JULIA LU - 8,772.7
CHASE EHRIG - 8,108.9
DANIEL MINIOT - 7,718.2
RAMIRO GARCIA - 7,056.5
SHANNON NEY - 7,730.9
ALEX BRIONES - 7,516.6
RAY MONAHAN - 7,119.4

4. HIGHLAND PARK HIGH SCHOOL - 48,186.7
5. ROCKWALL-HEATH HIGH SCHOOL - 48,109.3

Whoops; I did the poll too quickly. Can I re-poll?

I'll do more predictions soon. biggrin.gif
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stanleytree
post Feb 18 2014, 11:33 AM
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I don't see how Heath is any more experienced than Clear Lake. Last year was the first time for both in the top 5, and Clear Lake had a huge gap closure last year, claiming 23% to Heath's 8%, which other than Clements was significantly higher than anyone else at large state.

If the same gap closure happened this year:
Clear Lake- 49,400
Heath- 47,463

Now, Clear Lake has serious team balance issues- they really need to get their S2 and V2 going to have a chance to do this. But that also means they have lots of space to improve- if those two each go up 1,000, they will run away with third and possibly even challenge for second (Eddie Nunez did this- was a no-show at regionals than pulled off first in the state with a massive score increase).

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Guest_Gear_*
post Feb 18 2014, 03:59 PM
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QUOTE (TinDefacto @ Feb 18 2014, 01:54 AM) *
Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhh the excitement!!

1. ROCKWALL HIGH SCHOOL - 52,389.2
REBECCA VOTH - 9,124.3
RYAN ROCK - 8,933.7
HOPE WALLACE - 8,910.4
DREW TROXLER - 8,941.8
EVAN CEDOR - 8,857.2
MIGUEL PACHECO - 8,822.1
ENRICO TREVISANI - 8,613.4
SARAH JESTER - 7,918.6
GRANT WORKINGS - 7,748.4

2. PEARLAND HIGH SCHOOL - 50,571.7
ETHAN ARNOLD - 8,482.9
RAJAN DESAI - 8,817.2
SHIVAM DAVE - 9,273.4
MARCELLA SABOE - 8,155.7
SAMUEL HOLMES - 8,274.6
ZACHARY WATSON - 8,072.3
NICHOLAI TWYMAN - 7,909.0
MASON NATALE - 8,141.8
KAITLYN HARBUCK - 7,448.8

3. FRIENDSWOOD HIGH SCHOOL - 48,868.7
DEREK JANAK - 9,021.4
ROMA PRADHAN - 8,768.3
JULIA LU - 8,772.7
CHASE EHRIG - 8,108.9
DANIEL MINIOT - 7,718.2
RAMIRO GARCIA - 7,056.5
SHANNON NEY - 7,730.9
ALEX BRIONES - 7,516.6
RAY MONAHAN - 7,119.4

4. HIGHLAND PARK HIGH SCHOOL - 48,186.7
5. ROCKWALL-HEATH HIGH SCHOOL - 48,109.3

Whoops; I did the poll too quickly. Can I re-poll?

I'll do more predictions soon. biggrin.gif

Two things : I think these scores are low and I don't think you're factoring seeding into your predictions. Heath went first in speech at Regionals and got the accompanying low scores ; they won't be going first at state so I expect a bit of a boost in speech scores without them doing anything.
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Guest_the_crazy_honors_*
post Feb 18 2014, 05:21 PM
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QUOTE (TinDefacto @ Feb 18 2014, 01:54 AM) *
1. ROCKWALL HIGH SCHOOL - 52,389.2
REBECCA VOTH - 9,124.3
RYAN ROCK - 8,933.7
HOPE WALLACE - 8,910.4

Why do you have the honors trading places?
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TinDefacto
post Feb 18 2014, 06:29 PM
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QUOTE (the_crazy_honors @ Feb 18 2014, 12:21 PM) *
QUOTE (TinDefacto @ Feb 18 2014, 01:54 AM) *
1. ROCKWALL HIGH SCHOOL - 52,389.2
REBECCA VOTH - 9,124.3
RYAN ROCK - 8,933.7
HOPE WALLACE - 8,910.4

Why do you have the honors trading places?

Reasons. It just seems likely to me.
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madcap
post Feb 18 2014, 06:37 PM
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QUOTE (TinDefacto @ Feb 18 2014, 01:29 PM) *
QUOTE (the_crazy_honors @ Feb 18 2014, 12:21 PM) *
QUOTE (TinDefacto @ Feb 18 2014, 01:54 AM) *
1. ROCKWALL HIGH SCHOOL - 52,389.2
REBECCA VOTH - 9,124.3
RYAN ROCK - 8,933.7
HOPE WALLACE - 8,910.4

Why do you have the honors trading places?

Reasons. It just seems likely to me.


My gut instinct sees that and thinks "Um, it seems like two of them will break 9,000" ...

But, yeah, they'll probably mix and mix like California honors last year: nobody had a clear lead. Only one of the regionals top three (Chong) made it into the state top three! And none of the state top three made it into the nationals top three.
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madcap
post Feb 18 2014, 06:45 PM
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QUOTE (Stanley Tree @ Feb 18 2014, 06:33 AM) *
I don't see how Heath is any more experienced than Clear Lake. Last year was the first time for both in the top 5, and Clear Lake had a huge gap closure last year, claiming 23% to Heath's 8%, which other than Clements was significantly higher than anyone else at large state.

If the same gap closure happened this year:
Clear Lake- 49,400
Heath- 47,463

Now, Clear Lake has serious team balance issues- they really need to get their S2 and V2 going to have a chance to do this. But that also means they have lots of space to improve- if those two each go up 1,000, they will run away with third and possibly even challenge for second (Eddie Nunez did this- was a no-show at regionals than pulled off first in the state with a massive score increase).


Heath is steadily moving higher and higher; they have a much better history. Clear Lake surprised us at State/2013 and Regionals/2014, but is their improvement as sustainable? They're a great team and it's awesome to see them over 46k, but I'm not sure they're experienced enough to squeeze 2,000 points out of S2 and V2. Eddie Nunez in 2009 was very exceptional.
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madcap
post Feb 18 2014, 06:48 PM
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QUOTE (TinDefacto @ Feb 18 2014, 02:54 AM) *
Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhh the excitement!!

1. ROCKWALL HIGH SCHOOL - 52,389.2
REBECCA VOTH - 9,124.3
RYAN ROCK - 8,933.7
HOPE WALLACE - 8,910.4
DREW TROXLER - 8,941.8
EVAN CEDOR - 8,857.2
MIGUEL PACHECO - 8,822.1
ENRICO TREVISANI - 8,613.4
SARAH JESTER - 7,918.6
GRANT WORKINGS - 7,748.4


I was looking at this and thinking, "that only adds up to 52,389.2?" I want them to go higher. I feel like V1 is a bit high and V2 is a bit low. If you're not afraid to predict three scholastics over 8.8k, why not two varsities over 8k and/or two honors over 9k? =)

It won't surprise me if Rockwall and Pearland both bring two 8k varsities to the show.
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madcap
post Feb 18 2014, 06:52 PM
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QUOTE (TinDefacto @ Feb 18 2014, 02:54 AM) *
Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhh the excitement!!

1. ROCKWALL HIGH SCHOOL - 52,389.2
REBECCA VOTH - 9,124.3
RYAN ROCK - 8,933.7
HOPE WALLACE - 8,910.4
DREW TROXLER - 8,941.8
EVAN CEDOR - 8,857.2
MIGUEL PACHECO - 8,822.1
ENRICO TREVISANI - 8,613.4
SARAH JESTER - 7,918.6
GRANT WORKINGS - 7,748.4

2. PEARLAND HIGH SCHOOL - 50,571.7
ETHAN ARNOLD - 8,482.9
RAJAN DESAI - 8,817.2
SHIVAM DAVE - 9,273.4
MARCELLA SABOE - 8,155.7
SAMUEL HOLMES - 8,274.6
ZACHARY WATSON - 8,072.3
NICHOLAI TWYMAN - 7,909.0
MASON NATALE - 8,141.8
KAITLYN HARBUCK - 7,448.8

3. FRIENDSWOOD HIGH SCHOOL - 48,868.7
DEREK JANAK - 9,021.4
ROMA PRADHAN - 8,768.3
JULIA LU - 8,772.7
CHASE EHRIG - 8,108.9
DANIEL MINIOT - 7,718.2
RAMIRO GARCIA - 7,056.5
SHANNON NEY - 7,730.9
ALEX BRIONES - 7,516.6
RAY MONAHAN - 7,119.4

4. HIGHLAND PARK HIGH SCHOOL - 48,186.7
5. ROCKWALL-HEATH HIGH SCHOOL - 48,109.3

Whoops; I did the poll too quickly. Can I re-poll?

I'll do more predictions soon. biggrin.gif


Are Wallace and Dave the only people who decrease from R2 to R3 in this entire group of 27? If test difficulty is normal, I guess about 40% of people will go up; 40% will remain the same, and 20% will go down. All three Pearland scholastics over 8k also seems really optimistic.

My wild guesses for top 3:

Honors:
1. Dare, Pearland, 9,388
2. Voth, Rockwall, 9,133
3. Yang, The Colony, 9,085
(Yay Medium!!!)

Scholastic:
1. Cedor, Rockwall, 8,907
2. Troxler, Rockwall, 8,873
3. Pacheco, Rockwall, 8,591
(Yes, they will probably sweep scholastic and I bet nobody else will come close.)

Varsity:
1. Trevisani, Rockwall, 8,395
2. Natale, Pearland, 8,102
3. Ballard, Clear Lake, 8,054
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TinDefacto
post Feb 19 2014, 07:56 PM
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1. ROCKWALL 52,389.0 (same)
2. PEARLAND 50,571.7 (same)
3. FRIENDSWOOD 49,068.7 (same)
4. HIGHLAND PARK 48,749.4
5. ROCKWALL-HEATH 48,613.0
6. CLEAR LAKE 47,916.3
7. NIMITZ 46,538.6
8. J. FRANK DOBIE 46,125.4

Also, I did these 3, though slightly more haphazardly:
CENTENNIAL 45,207.0
WAKELAND 44,434.5
LIBERTY 43,293.1

Top individuals from these teams only:
HONORS:

SHIVAM DAVE - PEARLAND - 9,273.4
REBECCA VOTH - ROCKWALL - 9,124.3
DEREK JANAK - FRIENDSWOOD - 9,021.4
RYAN ROCK - ROCKWALL - 8,933.7
HOPE WALLACE - ROCKWALL - 8,910.4
JAMES BEATTIE - ROCKWALL-HEATH - 8,831.6
RAJAN DESAI - PEARLAND - 8,817.2
VIK SHIRVAIKAR - LIBERTY - 8,815.7
MAX GUAN - CENTENNIAL - 8,807.8
JULIA LU - FRIENDSWOOD - 8,772.7

SCHOLASTICS
DREW TROXLER - ROCKWALL - 8,941.8
EVAN CEDOR - ROCKWALL - 8,857.2
MIGUEL PACHECO - ROCKWALL - 8,822.1
MATTHEW FROST - CLEAR LAKE - 8,340.4
REBECCA VAN PAMEL - NIMITZ - 8,309.4
SAMUEL HOLMES - PEARLAND - 8,274.6
MARCELLA SABOE - PEARLAND - 8,155.7
CHASE EHRIG - FRIENDSWOOD - 8,108.9
ZACHARY WATSON - PEARLAND - 8,072.3
TYLER BIERSCHENK - HIGHLAND PARK - 8,043.6

VARSITIES
ENRICO TREVISANI - ROCKWALL - 8,613.4
MASON NATALE - PEARLAND - 8,141.8
RACHAEL BALLARD - CLEAR LAKE - 8,114.7
BEREN DAVIDSON - HIGHLAND PARK - 7,954.5
WILLIAM LITTLE - J. FRANK DOBIE - 7,948.4
SHANNON NEY - FRIENDSWOOD - 7,930.9
SARAH JESTER - ROCKWALL - 7,918.6
ALEX BRENNAN - HIGHLAND PARK - 7,917.0
NICHOLAI TWYMAN - PEARLAND - 7,909.0
GRANT WORKINGS - ROCKWALL - 7,748.4
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Guest_JSC_*
post Feb 20 2014, 03:03 AM
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Okay...all settled now here in San Antonio for the Rockwall Coronation Celebration. Can't wait!
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stanleytree
post Feb 20 2014, 06:08 AM
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Clear Lake's coach is a former decathlete in the nineties from some program known as James E. Taylor I believe. They know what they are doing.
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Guest_Gear_*
post Feb 21 2014, 09:14 PM
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QUOTE (JSC @ Feb 19 2014, 09:03 PM) *
Okay...all settled now here in San Antonio for the Rockwall Coronation Celebration. Can't wait!

Pearland will have something to say about that.... Without math, they are right on Rockwall's tail.
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Guest_Gear_*
post Feb 22 2014, 12:07 AM
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QUOTE (Stanley Tree @ Feb 20 2014, 12:08 AM) *
Clear Lake's coach is a former decathlete in the nineties from some program known as James E. Taylor I believe. They know what they are doing.

Not to mention the 20 national merit semifinalists on campus.
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madcap
post Feb 22 2014, 02:01 PM
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QUOTE (Gear @ Feb 21 2014, 04:14 PM) *
QUOTE (JSC @ Feb 19 2014, 09:03 PM) *
Okay...all settled now here in San Antonio for the Rockwall Coronation Celebration. Can't wait!

Pearland will have something to say about that.... Without math, they are right on Rockwall's tail.


At this point, you had only done LL and subjectives, right? It's not much to go by. smile.gif it wouldn't surprise me it Pearland beat Rockwall in these four events but a pronounced Rockwall lead will show and generally widen throughout the day as we add more and more events.
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Guest_nixonotis_*
post Feb 22 2014, 09:44 PM
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Been hearing that the tests were pretty hard/scores were lower than expected, so don't get too excited, Robb and Sebastian tongue.gif

Nonetheless, Texas is great this year, so I'm sure some records will still be broken.
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TinDefacto
post Feb 22 2014, 10:35 PM
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QUOTE (nixonotis @ Feb 22 2014, 04:44 PM) *
Been hearing that the tests were pretty hard/scores were lower than expected, so don't get too excited, Robb and Sebastian tongue.gif

Nonetheless, Texas is great this year, so I'm sure some records will still be broken.

I've been hearing the opposite, but only from individuals who didn't actually have their scores. Hmm.
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Guest_nixonotis_*
post Feb 22 2014, 11:00 PM
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QUOTE (TinDefacto @ Feb 22 2014, 03:35 PM) *
QUOTE (nixonotis @ Feb 22 2014, 04:44 PM) *
Been hearing that the tests were pretty hard/scores were lower than expected, so don't get too excited, Robb and Sebastian tongue.gif

Nonetheless, Texas is great this year, so I'm sure some records will still be broken.

I've been hearing the opposite, but only from individuals who didn't actually have their scores. Hmm.

Suspense! Hopefully I'm wrong smile.gif

Also, I'll let an actual Texan chime in on the fact that this year was almost a "nonathlon". Pretty good story...
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