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> 2017 Nationals, April 20 - 22, 2017
zzzptm
post Apr 15 2017, 01:17 PM
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Maybe those are the scores a team gets when it's populated purely with imaginary boyfriends and girlfriends.

"Oh yeah, I have an AcaDec score... it's 46000, pretty sweet... it's in Canada, I'll see that score this summer... I write to it all the time, it's for real!"


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TinDefacto
post Apr 16 2017, 09:47 PM
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Google Form for Predictions! biggrin.gif

Results here!!

Ahhh I'm so excited!! I head to Madison on Tuesday, but a lot of teams are already there or on their ways!

Also:
QUOTE (zzzptm @ Apr 15 2017, 08:17 AM) *
Maybe those are the scores a team gets when it's populated purely with imaginary boyfriends and girlfriends.

"Oh yeah, I have an AcaDec score... it's 46000, pretty sweet... it's in Canada, I'll see that score this summer... I write to it all the time, it's for real!"

lolololol this would actually make quite a lot of sense. xD


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SamKeal
post Apr 17 2017, 04:10 AM
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I won't make a poll for it, but does anyone have ENats predictions? I'll probably post mine sometime tomorrow. There are some very close state scores between some of the teams competing, making what could be a very interesting competition.


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kdarrow
post Apr 17 2017, 02:47 PM
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Does anyone know how hard/easy it was to get individuals sent to nationals this year? Our small school runner-up is sending four students to Madison. This seemed like a large number form a small school in Iowa. They did score 38k, so a decent score. Does anyone know how many individuals are going to nationals?


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TinDefacto
post Apr 17 2017, 05:20 PM
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QUOTE (kdarrow @ Apr 17 2017, 09:47 AM) *
Does anyone know how hard/easy it was to get individuals sent to nationals this year? Our small school runner-up is sending four students to Madison. This seemed like a large number form a small school in Iowa. They did score 38k, so a decent score. Does anyone know how many individuals are going to nationals?

The list of individual participants is here!


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Stanley Tree
post Apr 17 2017, 06:24 PM
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Can anyone tell me the qualifications for the individual portion? It seems so completely random who gets invited.


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Dave C
post Apr 17 2017, 09:20 PM
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Nationals newbie question...what kind of food is around and available for lunch on Thursday and Friday? I know it is not provided, but do they normally make sure that there is something available for purchase somewhere in the convention center? Or are teams just on their own to bring something or forage around downtown? It doesn't look like there is a huge window in the schedule for that.
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schwartzy18
post Apr 17 2017, 10:40 PM
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So if an international school (SISU) beats out Wilmot for D2, as scores indicate, will they get the banner? Or how does that work?
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kdarrow
post Apr 17 2017, 10:50 PM
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QUOTE (Dave C @ Apr 17 2017, 04:20 PM) *
Nationals newbie question...what kind of food is around and available for lunch on Thursday and Friday? I know it is not provided, but do they normally make sure that there is something available for purchase somewhere in the convention center? Or are teams just on their own to bring something or forage around downtown? It doesn't look like there is a huge window in the schedule for that.

I am not sure about the specific venue, but we are usually on our own to find food. Last year I ran to grab pizza.


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SamKeal
post Apr 17 2017, 11:10 PM
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QUOTE (schwartzy18 @ Apr 17 2017, 05:40 PM) *
So if an international school (SISU) beats out Wilmot for D2, as scores indicate, will they get the banner? Or how does that work?


Even though this document doesn't say anything about international teams getting division awards, it doesn't say anything about them not being eligible for them. I would hope they could win them. They pay all of that money.


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madcap
post Apr 19 2017, 03:49 AM
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QUOTE (TinDefacto @ Apr 16 2017, 03:47 PM) *


Any more predictions? smile.gif


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zzzptm
post Apr 19 2017, 10:42 PM
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I'm not predicting as much as I'm cheering for HPHS to win nationals. Bring that trophy back to Texas!


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TinDefacto
post Apr 20 2017, 02:20 AM
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So what it looks like currently (with only eight predictions in):

Granada is the favorite to win with 6/8 votes; the other two were for Highland Park. 6/8 also think that the top score, regardless of the school, will be 54k; one says 55k and another (me) says 53k. The votes for 3rd overall are pretty split; 3 say Whitney Young, 3 say Oakwood, and 2 say CDO. With Oakwood taken out of the mix, 5 say Whitney Young and 3 CDO.

Wilmot is the favorite to win DII with all but one vote; 5 voted Hendricken 2nd, and Parsippany was voted by 4 to be 3rd.

Oakwood was unanimously voted DIII champions at somewhere 45k to 48k; people seemed to agree for the most part that Mount Michael would be 2nd, and Madison Academic 3rd.

Now, as for my predictions:

DI:
1. Granada Hills Charter, CA, 53.9k
2. Highland Park, TX, 52.5k
3. Whitney Young, IL, 47.4k
4. Canyon del Oro, AZ, 46.2k
5. Acton-Boxborough, MA, 45.1k
6. Cedar Rapids Jefferson, 43.4k
7. North Penn, PA, 43.3k
8. Martinsville, IN, 39.1k
9. Bingham, UT, 37.2k
10. Trumbull, CT, 32.1k
11. Wootton, MD, 30.9k

DII:
1. Wilmot Union, WI, 43.3k
2. Bishop Hendricken, RI, 41.4k
3. Parsippany, NJ, 39.2k
4. Dreher, SC, 38.5k
5. Lathrop, AK, 38.4k
6. Scarborough, ME, 37.8k
7. Lakeview-Fort Oglethorpe, GA, 36.5k
8. Madison Central, MS, 35.8k
9. Shawnee Mission South, KS, 35.8k
10. Caddo Parish Magnet, LA, 32.1k

DIII:
1. Oakwood, OH, 46.9k
2. Madison Academic, TN, 40.8k
3. Mount Michael, NE, 40.4k
4. Kamehameha Hawai'i, HI, 36.8k
5. Sugar-Salem, ID, 36.1k
6. St. Pius X, NM, 34.1k
7. St. Peter, MN, 31.5k
8. Wheatland, WY, 29.7
9. Lyndonville Central, NY, 29.2k
10. Frontier Academy, CO, 29.0k
11. University Academy, MO, 24.1k

I think a lot of teams will have very large drops in subs scores since they had very high scores at State and Wisconsin is, well... Wisconsin.

One thing: I really don't know what to make of Kamehameha Hawai'i. I was surprised to see their score so low, and looking at their roster in the booklet thingy here, they have four returners from last year, including 8k Varsity Jacob Perry. Only six members are listed, though, so it's possible that they don't have a full team? Not sure. Also weird is that Kawika O'Connor is listed among them again, so unless he transferred there from Hilo, it's weird they're in DIII. (Last year when he and his brother Lopaka joined Kamehameha's team since Hilo's folded, they had to factor in both schools' population counts, which put them in DI.) If they have a full team, but maybe just didn't at State or something, they could easily be over 40k. Or maybe not though. We shall see.

Also, it just occurred to me that we'll have two schools named Madison X (as usual) in Madison. So many Madison.

Shall post individual predictions shortly!


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TinDefacto
post Apr 20 2017, 03:09 AM
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Individuals:

Individuals are always hard to predict but it's still fun.

DI:
H1. Melissa Santos, Granada Hills Charter, CA
H2. Michael Xie, Highland Park, TX
H3. Aishah Mahmud, Granada Hills Charter, CA
S1. Peter Shin, Granada Hills Charter, CA
S2. Mark Aguila, Granada Hills Charter, CA
S3. Christopher Lo, Granada Hills Charter, CA
V1. Wyatt Hill, Highland Park, TX
V2. Jordan Barretto, Granada Hills Charter, CA
V3. Sebastian Gonzalez, Granada Hills Charter, CA

It'd be cool if Jonathon Marek broke into the top three Honors like Tim You in 2015. Piper Gray/Brady Lybarger also have good shots at being top 3 in terms of non-Texans/Californians.

DII:
H1. Yongyuan Huang, Bishop Hendricken, RI
H2. Miki Hansen, Parsippany, NJ
H3. Dylan Temel, Bishop Hendricken, RI
S1. Isaac Bruley, Wilmot Union, WI
S2. Emily Heckel, Wilmot Union, WI
S3. Alden Pratt, Bishop Hendricken, RI
V1. Samantha Steiner, Wilmot Union, WI
V2. Ryan Brady, Bishop Hendricken, RI
V3. Will Chen, Parsippany, NJ

Honors is anyone's game -- only one DII competitor that I know of scored over 8k at State (Miki Hansen). Many in the mid-7k range, but I have the feeling Hendricken will end up holding up pretty well. Wilmot's freshman Honors are starting too low to probably make it in the cut, but we'll see. I feel like there's a good chance Dreher will have an Honors up there, but I'm not sure.

Scholastic too is pretty up for grabs, I think, except for the top spot, which I think will almost certainly go to Isaac Bruley. I don't know the exact balance of Wilmot's team, but I think their S2 was likely around 7k at State (and will as such probably rise a bit), and I think Hendricken will hold up pretty well in general. Rohan Singh of Parsippany or the two Scarborough Scholastics may also be in there, as well as a surprise from one of the other teams.

Varsity though looks strong in DII -- we've got Hendricken and Parsippany with 7k Varsities at State as well as two Wilmot Varsities, a Scarborough kid, and a Lathrop kid near there. It could be anyone's game.

DIII:
H1. Will Janning, Oakwood, OH
H2. Rey Arcenas, Oakwood, OH
H3. Henry O'Callaghan, Mount Michael, NE
S1. Clay Goertemiller, Oakwood, OH
S2. Drake Oberholtzer, Madison Academic, TN
S3. Kawika O'Connor, Kamehameha, HI
V1. Jacob Perry, Kamehameha, HI
V2. Matt Koch, Oakwood, OH
V3. John Jones, Oakwood, OH

As good as Oakwood is, I feel like the other schools will have good chances to break into the top 3 here -- particularly, I think Madison Academic has two very strong Scholastics, and Mount Michael's top Honors is super strong. But also, back to Kamehameha again -- I don't know if Jacob Perry is still a Varsity, but if he is, he should have that top spot in the bag. Kawika also has a good shot at being in the top three Scholastics, if he is a Scholastic again. But I don't know what to make of them right now -- as I said above, they could be 40k, or they may be 36k. We shall see.

Whatever the case: to everybody competing tomorrow, BEST OF LUCK, AND YOU'RE AWESOME!! biggrin.gif (And also say hi. xD)


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SamKeal
post Apr 20 2017, 04:12 AM
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QUOTE (TinDefacto @ Apr 19 2017, 09:20 PM) *
I think a lot of teams will have very large drops in subs scores since they had very high scores at State and Wisconsin is, well... Wisconsin.

This is very true about Wisconsin. In the entire history of State competitions in Wisconsin (something like 34 years), there have only been 2 perfect essay scores, 16 perfect interviews, and 21 perfect speech scores.


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TinDefacto
post Apr 20 2017, 04:37 AM
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Pre-E-Nationals team leaderboard on ADSIC here!

E-Nationals predictions are hard since some schools take it much less seriously than others. Nonetheless, here goes:

LARGE:
1. El Camino Real Charter, CA
2. Dulles, TX
3. McDowell, PA
4. Hamilton, AZ
5. Lincoln Pius X, NE

MEDIUM:
1. Edgewood, CA (anyone dare to disagree?)
2. Collegiate Academy, PA
3. Watertown, WI
4. Seton Catholic, AZ
5. Reitz Memorial, IN

SMALL:
1. St. Helena, CA
2. BASIS Chandler, AZ
3. Lourdes Central Catholic, NE
4. South Central Calhoun, IA
5. Clarion-Limestone, PA (or, hopefully Austin Prep from MA can break into the top five! #notbiased)

In essence, I think the top five per size will remain the same except for:

- McDowell jumping Hamilton in Large: Hamilton had hella subs, but McDowell had higher objs, at State
- Reitz Memorial jumping Turner in Medium: I feel like Reitz Memorial, who's been to National recently, will take the competition more seriously
- BASIS Chandler jumping Lourdes Central Catholic in Small: BASIS Chandler put up a huge increase at E-Nats last year. (Nebraska is also at a disadvantage due to their 25-question Math tests and only doing Social Science as Super Quiz.) Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if they jumped St. Helena too.


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Honourable Honor...
post Apr 20 2017, 05:31 PM
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QUOTE (TinDefacto @ Apr 19 2017, 10:09 PM) *
Individuals:

Individuals are always hard to predict but it's still fun.

DI:
H1. Melissa Santos, Granada Hills Charter, CA
H2. Michael Xie, Highland Park, TX
H3. Aishah Mahmud, Granada Hills Charter, CA
S1. Peter Shin, Granada Hills Charter, CA
S2. Mark Aguila, Granada Hills Charter, CA
S3. Christopher Lo, Granada Hills Charter, CA
V1. Wyatt Hill, Highland Park, TX
V2. Jordan Barretto, Granada Hills Charter, CA
V3. Sebastian Gonzalez, Granada Hills Charter, CA

It'd be cool if Jonathon Marek broke into the top three Honors like Tim You in 2015. Piper Gray/Brady Lybarger also have good shots at being top 3 in terms of non-Texans/Californians.

DII:
H1. Yongyuan Huang, Bishop Hendricken, RI
H2. Miki Hansen, Parsippany, NJ
H3. Dylan Temel, Bishop Hendricken, RI
S1. Isaac Bruley, Wilmot Union, WI
S2. Emily Heckel, Wilmot Union, WI
S3. Alden Pratt, Bishop Hendricken, RI
V1. Samantha Steiner, Wilmot Union, WI
V2. Ryan Brady, Bishop Hendricken, RI
V3. Will Chen, Parsippany, NJ

Honors is anyone's game -- only one DII competitor that I know of scored over 8k at State (Miki Hansen). Many in the mid-7k range, but I have the feeling Hendricken will end up holding up pretty well. Wilmot's freshman Honors are starting too low to probably make it in the cut, but we'll see. I feel like there's a good chance Dreher will have an Honors up there, but I'm not sure.

Scholastic too is pretty up for grabs, I think, except for the top spot, which I think will almost certainly go to Isaac Bruley. I don't know the exact balance of Wilmot's team, but I think their S2 was likely around 7k at State (and will as such probably rise a bit), and I think Hendricken will hold up pretty well in general. Rohan Singh of Parsippany or the two Scarborough Scholastics may also be in there, as well as a surprise from one of the other teams.

Varsity though looks strong in DII -- we've got Hendricken and Parsippany with 7k Varsities at State as well as two Wilmot Varsities, a Scarborough kid, and a Lathrop kid near there. It could be anyone's game.

DIII:
H1. Will Janning, Oakwood, OH
H2. Rey Arcenas, Oakwood, OH
H3. Henry O'Callaghan, Mount Michael, NE
S1. Clay Goertemiller, Oakwood, OH
S2. Drake Oberholtzer, Madison Academic, TN
S3. Kawika O'Connor, Kamehameha, HI
V1. Jacob Perry, Kamehameha, HI
V2. Matt Koch, Oakwood, OH
V3. John Jones, Oakwood, OH

As good as Oakwood is, I feel like the other schools will have good chances to break into the top 3 here -- particularly, I think Madison Academic has two very strong Scholastics, and Mount Michael's top Honors is super strong. But also, back to Kamehameha again -- I don't know if Jacob Perry is still a Varsity, but if he is, he should have that top spot in the bag. Kawika also has a good shot at being in the top three Scholastics, if he is a Scholastic again. But I don't know what to make of them right now -- as I said above, they could be 40k, or they may be 36k. We shall see.

Whatever the case: to everybody competing tomorrow, BEST OF LUCK, AND YOU'RE AWESOME!! biggrin.gif (And also say hi. xD)


Question: why do you have Peter Shin winning first, not Mark Aguila? Scores from CA state meet seem to show Aguila way ahead. Just curious.


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2nd Highest Score Nationals 2017 (9,250.9)
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TinDefacto
post Apr 20 2017, 06:43 PM
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QUOTE (Honourable Honors @ Apr 20 2017, 12:31 PM) *
Question: why do you have Peter Shin winning first, not Mark Aguila? Scores from CA state meet seem to show Aguila way ahead. Just curious.

Granada always switches things up; you never know what to expect from them. It seems to be in their history that their X3 becomes the highest scorer at Nationals. tongue.gif

(For instance, take a look at their scores last year from State to Nationals.)


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SamKeal
post Apr 20 2017, 08:47 PM
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QUOTE (TinDefacto @ Apr 20 2017, 01:43 PM) *
QUOTE (Honourable Honors @ Apr 20 2017, 12:31 PM) *
Question: why do you have Peter Shin winning first, not Mark Aguila? Scores from CA state meet seem to show Aguila way ahead. Just curious.

Granada always switches things up; you never know what to expect from them. It seems to be in their history that their X3 becomes the highest scorer at Nationals. tongue.gif

(For instance, take a look at their scores last year from State to Nationals.)


I also believe that Peter Shin had higher objectives than Mark Aguila, which are generally more consistent than subjectives.


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Scholastic Under...
post Apr 20 2017, 09:01 PM
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QUOTE (SamKeal @ Apr 20 2017, 03:47 PM) *
QUOTE (TinDefacto @ Apr 20 2017, 01:43 PM) *
QUOTE (Honourable Honors @ Apr 20 2017, 12:31 PM) *
Question: why do you have Peter Shin winning first, not Mark Aguila? Scores from CA state meet seem to show Aguila way ahead. Just curious.

Granada always switches things up; you never know what to expect from them. It seems to be in their history that their X3 becomes the highest scorer at Nationals. tongue.gif

(For instance, take a look at their scores last year from State to Nationals.)


I also believe that Peter Shin had higher objectives than Mark Aguila, which are generally more consistent than subjectives.

Mark Aguila's obs were 6,740, Peter Shin's were 6,660 at the maximum

This post has been edited by Scholastic Underdog: Apr 20 2017, 09:04 PM


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