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> Regionals 2017, It's coming
Guest_Peter Cao_*
post Dec 30 2016, 05:08 AM
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As 2016 comes to an end, regionals are about to start with Wisconsin starting us off on the 6th. Post your predictions, thoughts, and comments here.
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Guest_Scholastic Underdog_*
post Dec 30 2016, 06:02 AM
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HP wins Texas.
Granada wins Cali.
Wes' Texas score record doesn't fall.
Morton ranks 31-40 in Texas.
Katherine TheBeast Scott is 6.0k obs
Taylor Honors are ridiculous
Dulles Scholastics are also ridiculous

Will post actual predictions sometime soon wink.gif
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TinDefacto
post Dec 31 2016, 09:06 AM
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OOH biggrin.gif

Yayayayay predictions!! Here's what I'm predicting for Wisconsin this Friday:

1. Wilmot Union - 42.2k
2. Waukesha West - 41.4k
3. Watertown - 40.7k
4. Sun Prairie - 37.5k
5. New Berlin Eisenhower - 36.9k

You can call me crazy if you want but I'm willing to bet Wilmot will come in first despite their R1 score. Knowing who all they have returning, I think they should definitely be at least 40k. But maybe I'm wrong. We shall see.

Having the R1 scores has made me super into Wisconsin this year.

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SamKeal
post Dec 31 2016, 08:52 PM
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QUOTE (TinDefacto @ Dec 31 2016, 03:06 AM) *
OOH biggrin.gif

Yayayayay predictions!! Here's what I'm predicting for Wisconsin this Friday:

1. Wilmot Union - 42.2k
2. Waukesha West - 41.4k
3. Watertown - 40.7k
4. Sun Prairie - 37.5k
5. New Berlin Eisenhower - 36.9k

You can call me crazy if you want but I'm willing to bet Wilmot will come in first despite their R1 score. Knowing who all they have returning, I think they should definitely be at least 40k. But maybe I'm wrong. We shall see.

Having the R1 scores has made me super into Wisconsin this year.


I have slightly different predictions for Wisconsin.
1. Waukesha West - 42k
2. Watertown - 41k
3. Sun Prairie - 39k
4. Wilmot - 38.5k
5. New Richmond - 37.5k

The New Richmond in 5th comes from historically consistently high subjective scores for their team and not very consistent subs for NBE. 3rd and 4th are a toss up, but I would like to see Sun Prairie in 3rd. WW usually does very well at Regionals, so I think they will be in 1st.

As for individual scores, I think two honors will break 8.5k, and one scholastic will break 8.5k. Varsity scores will be fairly low, with 3 probably breaking 6.5k.
I will have results from the Whitewater regional (Watertown, Wilmot, Sun Prairie) on Friday. Full results the next week.

This post has been edited by SamKeal: Dec 31 2016, 10:37 PM
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TinDefacto
post Jan 2 2017, 04:40 AM
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QUOTE (SamKeal @ Dec 31 2016, 03:52 PM) *
I have slightly different predictions for Wisconsin.
1. Waukesha West - 42k
2. Watertown - 41k
3. Sun Prairie - 39k
4. Wilmot - 38.5k
5. New Richmond - 37.5k

The New Richmond in 5th comes from historically consistently high subjective scores for their team and not very consistent subs for NBE. 3rd and 4th are a toss up, but I would like to see Sun Prairie in 3rd. WW usually does very well at Regionals, so I think they will be in 1st.


Interesting. I originally wasn't sure whether to put NR or NBE as 5th, but I ended up going with NBE because they had a 5.1k Honors at R1, and maybe they're helping lead the team? Hmm. Made more sense on sleep deprivation... Honestly, you're probably right. We'll see. But I think I'm right about Wilmot. tongue.gif

That being said, I would LOVE to see Sun Prairie at 39k!! Best of luck on your preparations, and get off DDT/ADSIC. tongue.gif

I will do Texas predictions when I escape from this prison they call my home get back to school next week!
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stanleytree
post Jan 3 2017, 01:00 AM
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Don't sleep on the other New Berlin school sitting just below the top 10. Big mover this year, could move a lot more.

Texas will be a bit nuts. HP will be lower than everyone expects due to weird Region X subs, but so will us and Taylor due to crazy Region VII scores (although those could change). If VII turns out okay, then it will look like HP is much more vulnerable than they actually are. I don't believe Pearland was at 100% at round 1, and they will be much closer if not beating us at regionals. There are a bunch of teams right around 29-30k that will shake up the bottom part of the top ten in Texas, so who knows what's going to happen there. Lubbock was early so I think they'll move up a bit plus a weaker region, Region V with Pearland, Dobie, Clear Lake, and Friendswood will be a blood bath. Little Elm may be elevated due to a weak region but may come up fourth after regionals. We don't know where the Plano schools are but I'd bet East is in the same area as Rockwall and Heath.

In other words, other than HP and expected 2/3 of Taylor/Dulles, who knows what the hell will happen. Not even sure we're 2/3.
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Guest_Scholastic Underdog_*
post Jan 3 2017, 02:26 AM
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Region VII will likely be Taylor-Dulles being very close, with there being a moderately-sized gap between them and 3rd. Seven Lakes should take 3rd easily. Cinco Ranch, Morton and Clements will be fighting for 4-6 in the region. Even with low subs, I believe HP should be able to hold close to 50k, with the nearest schools to them likely pulling 46-48k (Dulles, Taylor, the ever-growing Little Elm), while Rockwall and Heath will continue their battle somewhere around 6-8 in the state. Pearland will likely see some growth to make them more competitive, and Friendswood should never be ignored. I predict the top 10 will be (in no particular order) HP, Rockwall, Heath, Dulles, Taylor, Little Elm, Pearland, Friendswood, Seven Lakes (subs permitting), with the tenth being somewhat up in the air (not much is known about Coppell, Monterey had an incredible showing at Easy, the Planos are lurking just outside the bubble, not to mention any other dark horses that may emerge). All in all, it will be a fun year to watch, even without getting to see Morton as a contender again.

Oh and my home-school hero Katherine is gonna be 6k obs... just wanted to say that again wink.gif

Will edit as time permits to add more predictions.

This post has been edited by Scholastic Underdog: Jan 9 2017, 11:39 PM
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Guest_Allan21996_*
post Jan 3 2017, 06:00 AM
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I think we see a team hit 55k at Region this year, and nobody else might break 54.
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TinDefacto
post Jan 3 2017, 11:02 AM
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QUOTE (Allan21996 @ Jan 3 2017, 01:00 AM) *
I think we see a team hit 55k at Region this year, and nobody else might break 54.

you cray bro

#californiadreamin
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Guest_Allan21996_*
post Jan 3 2017, 05:14 PM
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QUOTE (TinDefacto @ Jan 3 2017, 03:02 AM) *
QUOTE (Allan21996 @ Jan 3 2017, 01:00 AM) *
I think we see a team hit 55k at Region this year, and nobody else might break 54.

you cray bro

#californiadreamin

Tbh. Don't even feel like this is a prediction. Just what's going to happen.
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TinDefacto
post Jan 3 2017, 09:37 PM
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QUOTE (Allan21996 @ Jan 3 2017, 12:14 PM) *
QUOTE (TinDefacto @ Jan 3 2017, 03:02 AM) *
QUOTE (Allan21996 @ Jan 3 2017, 01:00 AM) *
I think we see a team hit 55k at Region this year, and nobody else might break 54.

you cray bro

#californiadreamin

Tbh. Don't even feel like this is a prediction. Just what's going to happen.

No matter how good the California teams are, I just don't think inflation will be that high again. It doesn't seem like it so far based on Round 1 scores.
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Guest_Scholastic Underdog_*
post Jan 3 2017, 11:03 PM
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QUOTE (TinDefacto @ Jan 3 2017, 03:37 PM) *
QUOTE (Allan21996 @ Jan 3 2017, 12:14 PM) *
QUOTE (TinDefacto @ Jan 3 2017, 03:02 AM) *
QUOTE (Allan21996 @ Jan 3 2017, 01:00 AM) *
I think we see a team hit 55k at Region this year, and nobody else might break 54.

you cray bro

#californiadreamin

Tbh. Don't even feel like this is a prediction. Just what's going to happen.

No matter how good the California teams are, I just don't think inflation will be that high again. It doesn't seem like it so far based on Round 1 scores.

Who says it's from inflation? Why can't a team just be that good?
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stanleytree
post Jan 4 2017, 04:12 AM
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That's going to put them around 39k or so. I don't see that happening but I could be wrong. 37 seems a fair ceiling this year. I'd see hp at 36 at regions.
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Guest_Peter Cao_*
post Jan 6 2017, 05:37 PM
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Best of luck to Wisconsin, who is taking regionals today!
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stanleytree
post Jan 6 2017, 11:35 PM
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Waukesha west 37.2
NB Eisenhower 36.2
NB West 35.2
Pewaukee 33.3
Rufus king 32.7
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SamKeal
post Jan 6 2017, 11:55 PM
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QUOTE (Stanley Tree @ Jan 6 2017, 05:35 PM) *
Waukesha west 37.2
NB Eisenhower 36.2
NB West 35.2
Pewaukee 33.3
Rufus king 32.7


Watertown 40.8 (ish)
Wilmot 38.7 (ish)
Sun Prairie 37.2

My Score - 8157.3
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TinDefacto
post Jan 7 2017, 12:04 AM
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...Whelp. I was right about Watertown at least?
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SamKeal
post Jan 7 2017, 12:07 AM
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QUOTE (TinDefacto @ Jan 6 2017, 06:04 PM) *
...Whelp. I was right about Watertown at least?

You were pretty close on SP's score. I wasn't...
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TinDefacto
post Jan 7 2017, 12:20 AM
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QUOTE (SamKeal @ Jan 6 2017, 07:07 PM) *
QUOTE (TinDefacto @ Jan 6 2017, 06:04 PM) *
...Whelp. I was right about Watertown at least?

You were pretty close on SP's score. I wasn't...

So, looking at the scores we have so far it looks like R1->R2 growth was much less than usual. Were the tests much harder? Or were subs lower than usual? (That's unlikely; Wisconsin usually does a pretty good job of training their judges as objectively as possible from competition to competition.)
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SamKeal
post Jan 7 2017, 12:30 AM
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QUOTE (TinDefacto @ Jan 6 2017, 06:20 PM) *
QUOTE (SamKeal @ Jan 6 2017, 07:07 PM) *
QUOTE (TinDefacto @ Jan 6 2017, 06:04 PM) *
...Whelp. I was right about Watertown at least?

You were pretty close on SP's score. I wasn't...

So, looking at the scores we have so far it looks like R1->R2 growth was much less than usual. Were the tests much harder? Or were subs lower than usual? (That's unlikely; Wisconsin usually does a pretty good job of training their judges as objectively as possible from competition to competition.)

Wilmot had the largest improvement by far, and I think growth was smaller this year. Subs don't seem to be any lower than usual. I thought the tests were fairly standard for Regionals, but that's just one opinion. I think we're going to see a lot of improvement for state (probably a lot from Wilmot again).
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