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> Texas Regionals 2016 -- Predictions!!, aw man this gonna be good
Predictions
Which team will take first?
Alice [ 1 ] ** [7.14%]
Coppell [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Dulles [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Friendswood [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Highland Park [ 6 ] ** [42.86%]
Pearland [ 3 ] ** [21.43%]
Rockwall [ 4 ] ** [28.57%]
Rockwall-Heath [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Other [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Which team will take second?
Alice [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Coppell [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Dulles [ 3 ] ** [21.43%]
Friendswood [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Highland Park [ 5 ] ** [35.71%]
Pearland [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Rockwall [ 6 ] ** [42.86%]
Rockwall-Heath [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Other [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Which team will take third?
Alice [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Coppell [ 1 ] ** [7.14%]
Dulles [ 4 ] ** [28.57%]
Friendswood [ 2 ] ** [14.29%]
Highland Park [ 2 ] ** [14.29%]
Pearland [ 4 ] ** [28.57%]
Rockwall [ 1 ] ** [7.14%]
Rockwall-Heath [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Other [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
How many teams will hit 50k?
0 [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
1 [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
2 [ 6 ] ** [42.86%]
3 [ 4 ] ** [28.57%]
4 [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
5 [ 4 ] ** [28.57%]
6 [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
7 [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
8 [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
9 [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
10+ [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
What will the top Honors score?
9,461.4+ [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
9,400.0-9,461.3 [ 2 ] ** [14.29%]
9,3xx [ 5 ] ** [35.71%]
9,2xx [ 4 ] ** [28.57%]
9,1xx [ 2 ] ** [14.29%]
9,0xx [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
8,9xx [ 1 ] ** [7.14%]
8,8xx [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
<8,800 [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
What will the top Scholastic score?
9,461.4 [ 1 ] ** [7.14%]
9,400.0-9,461.3 [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
9,3xx [ 1 ] ** [7.14%]
9,2xx [ 4 ] ** [28.57%]
9,1xx [ 2 ] ** [14.29%]
9,0xx [ 2 ] ** [14.29%]
8,9xx [ 1 ] ** [7.14%]
8,8xx [ 1 ] ** [7.14%]
8,7xx [ 2 ] ** [14.29%]
<8,700 [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
What will the top Varsity score?
9,461.4+ [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
9,400.0-9,461.3 [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
9,3xx [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
9,2xx [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
9,1xx [ 2 ] ** [14.29%]
9,0xx [ 2 ] ** [14.29%]
8,9xx [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
8,8xx [ 1 ] ** [7.14%]
8,7xx [ 2 ] ** [14.29%]
8,6xx [ 2 ] ** [14.29%]
8,5xx [ 5 ] ** [35.71%]
8,4xx [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
<8,400 [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
How many 9k'ers will there be?
0 [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
1 [ 1 ] ** [7.14%]
2 [ 2 ] ** [14.29%]
3 [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
4 [ 1 ] ** [7.14%]
5 [ 3 ] ** [21.43%]
6 [ 1 ] ** [7.14%]
7 [ 1 ] ** [7.14%]
8 [ 1 ] ** [7.14%]
9 [ 1 ] ** [7.14%]
10+ [ 3 ] ** [21.43%]
Total Votes: 14
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TinDefacto
post Jan 16 2016, 08:17 PM
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It's that time of the year again!! biggrin.gif

This year, Texas is looking perhaps literally better than ever. The Texas Renaissance continues, and it looks like we may see Texas's first year of producing more than two 50k teams (which California has done in 2008 and every year since 2013). We've also got an intensely strong set of students from all brackets from a variety of different schools, which is immensely exciting. Perhaps we are on our way to finally beating California in a couple of years? wink.gif (One can dream, right?)

I will be posting my predictions sometime in the next week. Now, go forth and discuss!! biggrin.gif
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Guest_Scholastic Underdog_*
post Jan 16 2016, 08:28 PM
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QUOTE (TinDefacto @ Jan 16 2016, 02:17 PM) *
It's that time of the year again!! biggrin.gif

This year, Texas is looking perhaps literally better than ever. The Texas Renaissance continues, and it looks like we may see Texas's first year of producing more than two 50k teams (which California has done in 2008 and every year since 2013). We've also got an intensely strong set of students from all brackets from a variety of different schools, which is immensely exciting. Perhaps we are on our way to finally beating California in a couple of years? wink.gif (One can dream, right?)

I will be posting my predictions sometime in the next week. Now, go forth and discuss!! biggrin.gif

The thread has finally been started!!! So exciting biggrin.gif
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madcap
post Jan 17 2016, 02:17 AM
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I thought my vote for Highland Park in first place would end up in the minority. But maybe a lot of other people are like me and ignoring Rockwall's history because they don't have faith in a Rockwall team based more on student leadership (this year) than experienced coaches (2014).
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madcap
post Jan 17 2016, 02:21 AM
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QUOTE (TinDefacto @ Jan 16 2016, 03:17 PM) *
The Texas Renaissance continues, and it looks like we may see Texas's first year of producing more than two 50k teams (which California has done in 2008 and every year since 2013).


People are voting for three Texas teams to break 50k at regionals alone. If that happens, Texas will go from never having produced more than one 50k team at regionals... to three...
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Guest_Scholastic Underdog_*
post Jan 17 2016, 02:53 AM
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QUOTE (madcap @ Jan 16 2016, 08:17 PM) *
I thought my vote for Highland Park in first place would end up in the minority. But maybe a lot of other people are like me and ignoring Rockwall's history because they don't have faith in a Rockwall team based more on student leadership (this year) than experienced coaches (2014).

I personally believe in Highland Park because they've been closing the gap this whole year. Rockwall has largely maintained, while Highland Park has been improving. Just my opinion, though.
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stanleytree
post Jan 17 2016, 03:02 AM
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Scores are higher this year, so I could honestly see 5 teams at regionals over 50k. I don't think it will happen until state due to region X's subs being notoriously tough, but it could. Rockwall, HP, Pearland, Heath, Dulles, and Coppell have all proven themselves within the range of 50k.

Also, when is the Texas Renfest over? I feel like we've been calling this a Rennaissance since '11, when Dobie and Rockwall were legit competing for a national title. No one is doing that this year.
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Guest_J Eberhard_*
post Jan 17 2016, 04:44 AM
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QUOTE (Stanley Tree @ Jan 16 2016, 09:02 PM) *
Scores are higher this year, so I could honestly see 5 teams at regionals over 50k. I don't think it will happen at state due to region X's subs being notoriously tough, but it could. Rockwall, HP, Pearland, Heath, Dulles, and Coppell have all proven themselves within the range of 50k.

Also, when is the Texas Renfest over? I feel like we've been calling this a Rennaissance since '11, when Dobie and Rockwall were legit competing for a national title. No one is doing that this year.


subjective scores in Dallas are b-r-u-t-a-l. I think we'll see 2 over 35k objectives but mid 14's for subjectives. whereas in our region you can write speeches two weeks before and still break 17k in subjectives. LOL Not sure about Fort Bend area, as in the past it has been a cone of silence (or just coaches not involved in acadec community).

As far as Alice in the poll goes... like the oscars... it really is a thrill to just be nominated. blush.gif
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TinDefacto
post Jan 17 2016, 04:52 AM
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QUOTE (Stanley Tree @ Jan 16 2016, 10:02 PM) *
Also, when is the Texas Renfest over? I feel like we've been calling this a Rennaissance since '11, when Dobie and Rockwall were legit competing for a national title. No one is doing that this year.

Interesting; I wasn't around back then and hadn't heard that term applied before I first said it. By my definition, the Texas Renaissance started in the '14 season when the density at the top end got higher as a multitude of teams started to rise up past the 46k score that used to win State year after year in the 00's. This has been getting better and better every year with even a ton more schools scoring over 40k than usual, and while I do think inflation plays some part in this rise of scores, I certainly don't think it can account for all or even most of the phenomenon. There is truly a greater talent pool in coaching as well a higher level of competitive culture that has been on the rise the past couple of years for a multitude of reasons, perhaps including, and I pose this hypothetically, the limitation of the number of schools who advanced to State the past two years (of course, this is no longer the case this year, and it certainly hasn't affected the very top end).

Anyway, I don't think '11 can be seen as the start given the going back to normal for '12 and '13. But we've had a 50k champion every year since '14 (which hasn't been common since the "Golden" James E. Taylor era of '95 to '01), and while this year I agree that no team this year can vie for the National Championship, I'm betting this will nonetheless prove as good foundation for an even better performance next year.

When is the Texas Renfest over? When we win Nationals. wink.gif
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Guest_Scholastic Underdog_*
post Jan 17 2016, 05:18 AM
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QUOTE (J Eberhard @ Jan 16 2016, 10:44 PM) *
QUOTE (Stanley Tree @ Jan 16 2016, 09:02 PM) *
Scores are higher this year, so I could honestly see 5 teams at regionals over 50k. I don't think it will happen at state due to region X's subs being notoriously tough, but it could. Rockwall, HP, Pearland, Heath, Dulles, and Coppell have all proven themselves within the range of 50k.

Also, when is the Texas Renfest over? I feel like we've been calling this a Rennaissance since '11, when Dobie and Rockwall were legit competing for a national title. No one is doing that this year.


subjective scores in Dallas are b-r-u-t-a-l. I think we'll see 2 over 35k objectives but mid 14's for subjectives. whereas in our region you can write speeches two weeks before and still break 17k in subjectives. LOL Not sure about Fort Bend area, as in the past it has been a cone of silence (or just coaches not involved in acadec community).

As far as Alice in the poll goes... like the oscars... it really is a thrill to just be nominated. blush.gif

Fort Bend is in our region, and as far as I know, Dulles and Morton Ranch are the only teams from the region on this website (though I'm sure I'm incorrect there). So there's definitely a slight lack in representation on here
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Guest_J Eberhard_*
post Jan 17 2016, 07:01 AM
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QUOTE (TinDefacto @ Jan 16 2016, 10:52 PM) *
QUOTE (Stanley Tree @ Jan 16 2016, 10:02 PM) *
Also, when is the Texas Renfest over? I feel like we've been calling this a Rennaissance since '11, when Dobie and Rockwall were legit competing for a national title. No one is doing that this year.

Interesting; I wasn't around back then and hadn't heard that term applied before I first said it. By my definition, the Texas Renaissance started in the '14 season when the density at the top end got higher as a multitude of teams started to rise up past the 46k score that used to win State year after year in the 00's. This has been getting better and better every year with even a ton more schools scoring over 40k than usual, and while I do think inflation plays some part in this rise of scores, I certainly don't think it can account for all or even most of the phenomenon. There is truly a greater talent pool in coaching as well a higher level of competitive culture that has been on the rise the past couple of years for a multitude of reasons, perhaps including, and I pose this hypothetically, the limitation of the number of schools who advanced to State the past two years (of course, this is no longer the case this year, and it certainly hasn't affected the very top end).

Anyway, I don't think '11 can be seen as the start given the going back to normal for '12 and '13. But we've had a 50k champion every year since '14 (which hasn't been common since the "Golden" James E. Taylor era of '95 to '01), and while this year I agree that no team this year can vie for the National Championship, I'm betting this will nonetheless prove as good foundation for an even better performance next year.

When is the Texas Renfest over? When we win Nationals. wink.gif


2011 is the correct year. It has more to do with "openness" with scores and communication between coaches than it does with scores. As long as Texas teams were 'secretive' it stifled competitiveness. Since 2011 top teams readily share scores... and not just on forums, but via email, googledocs, and such. The network of openness has instilled new energy. 2011 is THE year. smile.gif It was the year of the first Decathapalooza. Texas coaches basically created a 'season schedule' that many try to adhere to so there can be valid comparisons for what scores mean.

This post has been edited by J Eberhard: Jan 17 2016, 07:03 AM
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TinDefacto
post Jan 17 2016, 08:21 AM
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QUOTE (J Eberhard @ Jan 17 2016, 02:01 AM) *
QUOTE (TinDefacto @ Jan 16 2016, 10:52 PM) *
I don't think '11 can be seen as the start of the Texas Renaissance given the going back to normal for '12 and '13. But we've had a 50k champion every year since '14 (which hasn't been common since the "Golden" James E. Taylor era of '95 to '01), and while this year I agree that no team this year can vie for the National Championship, I'm betting this will nonetheless prove as good foundation for an even better performance next year.

2011 is the correct year. It has more to do with "openness" with scores and communication between coaches than it does with scores. As long as Texas teams were 'secretive' it stifled competitiveness. Since 2011 top teams readily share scores... and not just on forums, but via email, googledocs, and such. The network of openness has instilled new energy. 2011 is THE year. smile.gif It was the year of the first Decathapalooza. Texas coaches basically created a 'season schedule' that many try to adhere to so there can be valid comparisons for what scores mean.

Hmm, that's actually a really interesting perspective that I hadn't considered. I certainly wouldn't argue that that's not when the openness started -- you'd certainly know better than I, and it seems about right from my readings of older threads (oh, how I miss the days of Higginbotham, Gear and Irish battling out their wits all over the boards...). I do feel like there's still a fair amount of secrecy at least in regards to what gets to the public -- especially in the Houston area (we never get the Decathapalooza South scores, or the R1 scores from the Pearland meet, etc...) -- but then, I guess that since I'm not a coach there's a probably lot of information that gets shared that I'm not privy to. I certainly think that this is a huge help toward the competitive spirit and overall healthy culture of Texas, but I'm not sure I'm so convinced that this is the reason for the statewide increase in competitiveness. If anything, my main guess would be the spread of certain methods of coaching and preparation that I've heard more and more tops teams are using, modelled very closely to how California's top teams do it. However, this would of course only explain the teams at the top, and leaves the unprecedented 42 teams that scored over 40k at Regionals last year unaccounted for. (Even taking inflation into account, that's pretty unheard of, especially this millennium.)

Regardless, whether or not 2011 was the start of the events that led to it, I think the Texas Renaissance itself started in the '14 season.
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Guest_ridgepoint_acdec_*
post Jan 17 2016, 02:18 PM
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QUOTE (Scholastic Underdog @ Jan 17 2016, 05:18 AM) *
QUOTE (J Eberhard @ Jan 16 2016, 10:44 PM) *
QUOTE (Stanley Tree @ Jan 16 2016, 09:02 PM) *
Scores are higher this year, so I could honestly see 5 teams at regionals over 50k. I don't think it will happen at state due to region X's subs being notoriously tough, but it could. Rockwall, HP, Pearland, Heath, Dulles, and Coppell have all proven themselves within the range of 50k.

Also, when is the Texas Renfest over? I feel like we've been calling this a Rennaissance since '11, when Dobie and Rockwall were legit competing for a national title. No one is doing that this year.


subjective scores in Dallas are b-r-u-t-a-l. I think we'll see 2 over 35k objectives but mid 14's for subjectives. whereas in our region you can write speeches two weeks before and still break 17k in subjectives. LOL Not sure about Fort Bend area, as in the past it has been a cone of silence (or just coaches not involved in acadec community).

As far as Alice in the poll goes... like the oscars... it really is a thrill to just be nominated. blush.gif

Fort Bend is in our region, and as far as I know, Dulles and Morton Ranch are the only teams from the region on this website (though I'm sure I'm incorrect there). So there's definitely a slight lack in representation on here


We'll be in that region when they announce UIL realignment for next year. So we'll go one more year of competing medium school in Region V before being bumped up to the higher-scoring large school level at which point we'll join the larger FBISD and Katy ISD schools and others out at the Seven Lakes region.
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madcap
post Jan 17 2016, 08:22 PM
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Round 3 gap between California and Texas:

2000: -2,163
2001: -1,276
2002: 863
2003: 1,807
2004: 3,665
2005: 2,285
2006: 4,389
2007: 4,305
2008: 2,284
2009: 3,508
2010: 2,616
2011: 331
2012: 4,267
2013: 2,455
2014: 1,867
2015: 3,871
2016: ?
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Guest_Scholastic Underdog_*
post Jan 17 2016, 11:47 PM
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QUOTE (madcap @ Jan 17 2016, 02:22 PM) *
Round 3 gap between California and Texas:

2000: -2,163
2001: -1,276
2002: 863
2003: 1,807
2004: 3,665
2005: 2,285
2006: 4,389
2007: 4,305
2008: 2,284
2009: 3,508
2010: 2,616
2011: 331
2012: 4,267
2013: 2,455
2014: 1,867
2015: 3,871
2016: ?

I expect it to be a similar gap to last year, around 3-3.5k
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madcap
post Jan 18 2016, 12:19 AM
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QUOTE (Scholastic Underdog @ Jan 17 2016, 06:47 PM) *
QUOTE (madcap @ Jan 17 2016, 02:22 PM) *
Round 3 gap between California and Texas:

2000: -2,163
2001: -1,276
2002: 863
2003: 1,807
2004: 3,665
2005: 2,285
2006: 4,389
2007: 4,305
2008: 2,284
2009: 3,508
2010: 2,616
2011: 331
2012: 4,267
2013: 2,455
2014: 1,867
2015: 3,871
2016: ?

I expect it to be a similar gap to last year, around 3-3.5k


When do you think it will become a negative number again?
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Guest_Scholastic Underdog_*
post Jan 18 2016, 12:37 AM
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QUOTE (madcap @ Jan 17 2016, 06:19 PM) *
QUOTE (Scholastic Underdog @ Jan 17 2016, 06:47 PM) *
QUOTE (madcap @ Jan 17 2016, 02:22 PM) *
Round 3 gap between California and Texas:

2000: -2,163
2001: -1,276
2002: 863
2003: 1,807
2004: 3,665
2005: 2,285
2006: 4,389
2007: 4,305
2008: 2,284
2009: 3,508
2010: 2,616
2011: 331
2012: 4,267
2013: 2,455
2014: 1,867
2015: 3,871
2016: ?

I expect it to be a similar gap to last year, around 3-3.5k


When do you think it will become a negative number again?

If it ever happens, I think it'll happen once one of the rising programs gets truly established. I believe Dulles may have a shot in a few years, as Hartman has proven that he's a very good coach, with a lot in store for him, I think. Highland Park has a shot with Alvarado, and Rockwall has proven they at least have the student talent. I think it might take a new team to upset the balance, though. Only time will tell

This post has been edited by Scholastic Underdog: Jan 18 2016, 12:38 AM
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Guest_Allan21996_*
post Jan 18 2016, 03:26 AM
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QUOTE (madcap @ Jan 17 2016, 04:19 PM) *
QUOTE (Scholastic Underdog @ Jan 17 2016, 06:47 PM) *
QUOTE (madcap @ Jan 17 2016, 02:22 PM) *
Round 3 gap between California and Texas:

2000: -2,163
2001: -1,276
2002: 863
2003: 1,807
2004: 3,665
2005: 2,285
2006: 4,389
2007: 4,305
2008: 2,284
2009: 3,508
2010: 2,616
2011: 331
2012: 4,267
2013: 2,455
2014: 1,867
2015: 3,871
2016: ?

I expect it to be a similar gap to last year, around 3-3.5k


When do you think it will become a negative number again?

It would require all counters to be 9k, and then the small things breaking in their favor.
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stanleytree
post Jan 18 2016, 07:01 AM
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I do not believe it will happen any time soon.
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TinDefacto
post Jan 18 2016, 08:47 AM
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QUOTE (Stanley Tree @ Jan 18 2016, 02:01 AM) *
I do not believe it will happen any time soon.

I might just be overly optimistic, but I disconcur with Negative Nandrew over here. tongue.gif

I could see it in several more seasons, I hope. (Probably not in time for the 2018 Nationals when it's home in Frisco, but I can dream, can't I?)
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Guest_Allan21996_*
post Jan 18 2016, 07:27 PM
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QUOTE (TinDefacto @ Jan 18 2016, 12:47 AM) *
QUOTE (Stanley Tree @ Jan 18 2016, 02:01 AM) *
I do not believe it will happen any time soon.

I might just be overly optimistic, but I disconcur with Negative Nandrew over here. tongue.gif

I could see it in several more seasons, I hope. (Probably not in time for the 2018 Nationals when it's home in Frisco, but I can dream, can't I?)

I do not believe his statement was negative.
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