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> 2010 Nationals Predictions Poll, Vote away!
2010 Nationals Predictions Poll
Which team will win Nationals 2010?
Mountain View Mesa, Arizona [ 6 ] ** [15.00%]
El Camino Real, California [ 24 ] ** [60.00%]
Whitney Young, Illinois [ 1 ] ** [2.50%]
Creighton Prep, Nebraska [ 1 ] ** [2.50%]
Collegiate Academy, Pennsylvania [ 1 ] ** [2.50%]
Seven Lakes, Texas [ 6 ] ** [15.00%]
Waukesha West, Wisconsin [ 1 ] ** [2.50%]
Who will place 2nd?
Mountain View Mesa, Arizona [ 13 ] ** [32.50%]
El Camino Real, California [ 12 ] ** [30.00%]
Whitney Young, Illinois [ 3 ] ** [7.50%]
Creighton Prep, Nebraska [ 1 ] ** [2.50%]
Collegiate Academy, Pennsylvania [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Seven Lakes, Texas [ 11 ] ** [27.50%]
Waukesha West, Wisconsin [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Who will place 3rd?
Mountain View Mesa, Arizona [ 12 ] ** [30.00%]
El Camino Real, California [ 1 ] ** [2.50%]
Whitney Young, Illinois [ 21 ] ** [52.50%]
Creighton Prep, Nebraska [ 1 ] ** [2.50%]
Collegiate Academy, Pennsylvania [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Seven Lakes, Texas [ 5 ] ** [12.50%]
Waukesha West, Wisconsin [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Who will place 4th?
Mountain View Mesa, Arizona [ 11 ] ** [27.50%]
El Camino Real, California [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Whitney Young, Illinois [ 9 ] ** [22.50%]
Acton-Boxborough, Massachusetts [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Creighton Prep, Nebraska [ 1 ] ** [2.50%]
Collegiate Academy, Pennsylvania [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Madison Academic, Tennessee [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Seven Lakes, Texas [ 15 ] ** [37.50%]
Waukesha West, Wisconsin [ 4 ] ** [10.00%]
Who will place 5th?
Mountain View Mesa, Arizona [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Whitney Young, Illinois [ 4 ] ** [10.00%]
Acton-Boxborough, Massachusetts [ 2 ] ** [5.00%]
Creighton Prep, Nebraska [ 3 ] ** [7.50%]
Collegiate Academy, Pennsylvania [ 4 ] ** [10.00%]
Madison Academic, Tennessee [ 1 ] ** [2.50%]
Seven Lakes, Texas [ 1 ] ** [2.50%]
Waukesha West, Wisconsin [ 25 ] ** [62.50%]
How many points will the 1st place team earn?
Over 53k [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
52,500 - 53k [ 1 ] ** [2.50%]
52k - 52,500 [ 1 ] ** [2.50%]
51,500 - 52k [ 10 ] ** [25.00%]
51k - 51,500 [ 21 ] ** [52.50%]
50,500 - 51k [ 6 ] ** [15.00%]
50k - 50,500 [ 1 ] ** [2.50%]
49,500 - 50k [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
49k - 49,500 [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Which team will have the top individual scorer at nationals?
Mountain View Mesa, Arizona [ 16 ] ** [40.00%]
El Camino Real, California [ 6 ] ** [15.00%]
Whitney Young, Illinois [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Acton-Boxborough, Massachusetts [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Collegiate Academy, Pennsylvania [ 1 ] ** [2.50%]
Waukesha West, Wisconsin [ 1 ] ** [2.50%]
Creighton Prep, Nebraska [ 1 ] ** [2.50%]
Sandpoint, Idaho [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Lathrop, Alaska [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Seven Lakes, Texas [ 15 ] ** [37.50%]
How many people will join the 9k club?
0 [ 4 ] ** [10.00%]
1 [ 5 ] ** [12.50%]
2 [ 17 ] ** [42.50%]
3 [ 7 ] ** [17.50%]
4 [ 5 ] ** [12.50%]
5+ [ 2 ] ** [5.00%]
How many teams will break 50k?
0 [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
1 [ 9 ] ** [22.50%]
2 [ 23 ] ** [57.50%]
3 [ 7 ] ** [17.50%]
4+ [ 1 ] ** [2.50%]
Who will place sixth?
Whitney Young, Illinois [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Acton-Boxborough, Massachusetts [ 2 ] ** [5.88%]
Collegiate Academy, Pennsylvania [ 16 ] ** [47.06%]
Waukesha West, Wisconsin [ 1 ] ** [2.94%]
Creighton Prep, Nebraska [ 6 ] ** [17.65%]
Madison Academic, Tennessee [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Seven Lakes, Texas [ 1 ] ** [2.94%]
Cedar Rapids Jefferson, Iowa [ 7 ] ** [20.59%]
Madison Central, Mississippi [ 1 ] ** [2.94%]
Total Votes: 40
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madcap
post Mar 21 2010, 06:09 PM
Post #1


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California has a huge lead, but there are some other exciting possibilities in the cards. Hence the other 8 questions.

EDIT: Added question for 6th

State scores: http://acadecscores.gilslotd.com/wiki/State/2010

This post has been edited by madcap: Apr 4 2010, 01:33 AM
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Guest_TheAwesomeKid_*
post Mar 21 2010, 06:22 PM
Post #2





Guests






ECR (51.5-52k)
SL (over 50k)
WY (not over 50k)
MVM
WW

2 kids over 9k

SL with highest scorer
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madcap
post Mar 21 2010, 06:23 PM
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I predict a 2007 repeat where ECR leaps into the 52,000s and has two 9k'ers. Seven Lakes honors had stellar subjectives, so I don't see them breaking 9k. While I would love to see Collegiate break the top 5, Waukesha West is a score increase machine (47k to 49k to 50.9k last year, and 51k to 52k to 53k the year before). Whitney Young will rebound and land above 50k, followed by MVM (about 50k), then Waukesha (48.5k), then Seven Lakes (48k).

^^^^
Probably way off, given the accuracy of my past predictions.

This post has been edited by madcap: Mar 21 2010, 07:00 PM
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Guest_gibisee_*
post Mar 21 2010, 06:25 PM
Post #4





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My guess for 9k's are Ernzen, Jesudasen, and de Haas from highest to lowest. Moreh gets top scholastic.
No one gets even in the same zipcode as 53k.
Also, California teams win all 3 e-nats.

Edit: Just for fun, I predict the math test will be jokingly easy.

This post has been edited by gibisee: Mar 21 2010, 06:29 PM
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Guest_magicblueman_*
post Mar 21 2010, 06:42 PM
Post #5





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QUOTE (gibisee @ Mar 21 2010, 01:25 PM) *
My guess for 9k's are Ernzen, Jesudasen, and de Haas from highest to lowest. Moreh gets top scholastic.

What about Jon Xu? he was only 34 points from 9k at state (not to mention top scorer in the nation...)
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Guest_TheAwesomeKid_*
post Mar 21 2010, 06:52 PM
Post #6





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QUOTE (magicblueman @ Mar 21 2010, 02:42 PM) *
QUOTE (gibisee @ Mar 21 2010, 01:25 PM) *
My guess for 9k's are Ernzen, Jesudasen, and de Haas from highest to lowest. Moreh gets top scholastic.

What about Jon Xu? he was only 34 points from 9k at state (not to mention top scorer in the nation...)


GOTB!
(get off the boards)

and go study.
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zzzptm
post Mar 21 2010, 07:53 PM
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USAD hires the crustiest old judges ever for subjectives and knock those scores down to where most math scores are.

Gold Speech for a 533 and it goes downhill from there... weeping, wailing, and gnashing of teeth as 8000 points for a subjective total becomes the new amazing.

And ECR loses to Seven Lakes by 4 points.


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"The world could perish if people only worked on things that were easy to handle." -- Vladimir Savchenko
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Guest_gibisee_*
post Mar 21 2010, 11:09 PM
Post #8





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QUOTE (magicblueman @ Mar 21 2010, 12:42 PM) *
QUOTE (gibisee @ Mar 21 2010, 01:25 PM) *
My guess for 9k's are Ernzen, Jesudasen, and de Haas from highest to lowest. Moreh gets top scholastic.

What about Jon Xu? he was only 34 points from 9k at state (not to mention top scorer in the nation...)

With over 2900 subjectives (he medalled in all three events), I wouldn't bet that happens twice.
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Guest_TheAwesomeKid_*
post Mar 21 2010, 11:43 PM
Post #9





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QUOTE (gibisee @ Mar 21 2010, 07:09 PM) *
QUOTE (magicblueman @ Mar 21 2010, 12:42 PM) *
QUOTE (gibisee @ Mar 21 2010, 01:25 PM) *
My guess for 9k's are Ernzen, Jesudasen, and de Haas from highest to lowest. Moreh gets top scholastic.

What about Jon Xu? he was only 34 points from 9k at state (not to mention top scorer in the nation...)

With over 2900 subjectives (he medalled in all three events), I wouldn't bet that happens twice.


yeah, but he will increase in other tests. barring a craptacular math exam, his objectives go up. i think he can do it.
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Guest_spartandecathlon_*
post Mar 22 2010, 01:50 AM
Post #10





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QUOTE (madcap @ Mar 21 2010, 01:23 PM) *
I predict a 2007 repeat where ECR leaps into the 52,000s and has two 9k'ers. Seven Lakes honors had stellar subjectives, so I don't see them breaking 9k. While I would love to see Collegiate break the top 5, Waukesha West is a score increase machine (47k to 49k to 50.9k last year, and 51k to 52k to 53k the year before). Whitney Young will rebound and land above 50k, followed by MVM (about 50k), then Waukesha (48.5k), then Seven Lakes (48k).

^^^^
Probably way off, given the accuracy of my past predictions.


I hope your predictions are as accurate as Hartman's have been this year. popcorn.gif
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Guest_Jonesy_*
post Mar 22 2010, 05:27 AM
Post #11





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I swear I didn't vote for prep as every option.....

I might be lying.
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Guest_Perusse_*
post Mar 22 2010, 05:45 AM
Post #12





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ECR for the team win.
Seven Lakes for the top individuals.
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Guest_crackablasta_*
post Mar 23 2010, 02:14 AM
Post #13





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Why so much love for Seven Lakes over Mountain View?
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Guest_spartandecathlon_*
post Mar 23 2010, 03:09 AM
Post #14





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QUOTE (crackablasta @ Mar 22 2010, 09:14 PM) *
Why so much love for Seven Lakes over Mountain View?


If you are asking that of Perusse, he is from Texas. If there is one thing universal about us Texans we are very loyal to our state.

Our kids continue to work hard, this is all brand new for us, so it will be interesting to see what happens in April. popcorn.gif
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Guest_laureus_*
post Mar 23 2010, 04:05 AM
Post #15





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ECR
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Guest_laureus_*
post Mar 23 2010, 04:09 AM
Post #16





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QUOTE (crackablasta @ Mar 22 2010, 08:14 PM) *
Why so much love for Seven Lakes over Mountain View?

Well, SL has a lot of room for improvement in everything but honors, but it'll be hard for their honors to gain much, if they even maintain. I give an advantage to MVM. Balanced teams are good; ECR proves that.
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Guest_Dr. Roffles_*
post Mar 23 2010, 05:15 AM
Post #17





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Had a sudden flash of insight and wrote a Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation model that gives a full distribution of win probabilities for each school.

I'll unroll the full report in a few days, but I'll just say this: in the simulator, ECR wins nationals 90.1% of the time.

This post has been edited by Dr. Roffles: Mar 23 2010, 05:15 AM
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zzzptm
post Mar 23 2010, 12:25 PM
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OK TEXAS PRAY FOR THAT 9.9%


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"The world could perish if people only worked on things that were easy to handle." -- Vladimir Savchenko
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Guest_Dr. Roffles_*
post Mar 23 2010, 06:07 PM
Post #19





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Texas' chances are pretty remote, actually...
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zzzptm
post Mar 23 2010, 08:10 PM
Post #20


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QUOTE (Dr. Roffles @ Mar 23 2010, 01:07 PM) *
Texas' chances are pretty remote, actually...


How does the action in that 9.9% break out, then?


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"The world could perish if people only worked on things that were easy to handle." -- Vladimir Savchenko
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