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> Texas Regionals 2018 -- Predictions AND Results!!, The Renaissance continues
Predictions
Which team will take first place overall?
Dulles [ 11 ] ** [84.62%]
Lubbock [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Highland Park [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
James E. Taylor [ 1 ] ** [7.69%]
Klein [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Rockwall-Heath [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Seven Lakes [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Friendswood [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
J.J. Pearce [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Hebron [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Marcus [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Morton Ranch [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Other [ 1 ] ** [7.69%]
Which team will take second place overall?
Dulles [ 1 ] ** [7.69%]
Lubbock [ 6 ] ** [46.15%]
Highland Park [ 5 ] ** [38.46%]
James E. Taylor [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Klein [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Rockwall-Heath [ 1 ] ** [7.69%]
Seven Lakes [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Friendswood [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
J.J. Pearce [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Hebron [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Marcus [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Morton Ranch [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Other [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Which team will take third place overall?
Dulles [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Lubbock [ 4 ] ** [30.77%]
Highland Park [ 3 ] ** [23.08%]
James E. Taylor [ 3 ] ** [23.08%]
Klein [ 1 ] ** [7.69%]
Rockwall-Heath [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Seven Lakes [ 1 ] ** [7.69%]
Friendswood [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
J.J. Pearce [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Hebron [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Marcus [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Morton Ranch [ 1 ] ** [7.69%]
Other [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Which team will take fourth place overall?
Dulles [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Lubbock [ 1 ] ** [7.69%]
Highland Park [ 3 ] ** [23.08%]
James E. Taylor [ 7 ] ** [53.85%]
Klein [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Rockwall-Heath [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Seven Lakes [ 1 ] ** [7.69%]
Friendswood [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
J.J. Pearce [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Hebron [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Marcus [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Morton Ranch [ 1 ] ** [7.69%]
Other [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Which team will take fifth place overall?
Dulles [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Lubbock [ 2 ] ** [15.38%]
Highland Park [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
James E. Taylor [ 1 ] ** [7.69%]
Klein [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Rockwall-Heath [ 2 ] ** [15.38%]
Seven Lakes [ 1 ] ** [7.69%]
Friendswood [ 5 ] ** [38.46%]
J.J. Pearce [ 1 ] ** [7.69%]
Hebron [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Marcus [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Morton Ranch [ 1 ] ** [7.69%]
Other [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
What will the Large School cutoff be?
~41k+ [ 3 ] ** [23.08%]
~40k [ 2 ] ** [15.38%]
~39k [ 5 ] ** [38.46%]
~38k [ 3 ] ** [23.08%]
~37k [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
~36k- [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
What will the Medium School cutoff be?
~37k+ [ 1 ] ** [7.69%]
~36k [ 6 ] ** [46.15%]
~35k [ 4 ] ** [30.77%]
~34k [ 1 ] ** [7.69%]
~33k [ 1 ] ** [7.69%]
~32k- [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
How many students will score over 9k?
0 [ 1 ] ** [7.69%]
1 [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
2 [ 2 ] ** [15.38%]
3 [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
4 [ 2 ] ** [15.38%]
5 [ 1 ] ** [7.69%]
6 [ 3 ] ** [23.08%]
7 [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
8+ [ 4 ] ** [30.77%]
What will the top team score?
54k+ [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
53,xxx [ 2 ] ** [15.38%]
52,xxx [ 7 ] ** [53.85%]
51,xxx [ 3 ] ** [23.08%]
50,xxx [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
4x,xxx [ 1 ] ** [7.69%]
How many teams will break 50k?
0 [ 1 ] ** [7.69%]
1 [ 1 ] ** [7.69%]
2 [ 7 ] ** [53.85%]
3 [ 4 ] ** [30.77%]
4 [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
5+ [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Total Votes: 13
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TinDefacto
post Jan 20 2018, 08:48 PM
Post #21


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Region VII:

1. Dulles 49,753.8 (missing V2)
2. James E. Taylor 47,220.1
3. Seven Lakes 47,179.0
4. Morton Ranch 43,660.4
5. Katy 40,243.6
6. Tompkins 39,334.3
7. Ridge Point 38,493.2
8. Cinco Ranch 38,415.4
9. George Ranch 33,776.5

Achutha Srinivasan from Taylor top score with 9,321.9.

(This is one of those regions that got hit really hard in subs.)

Edit: already have full VII results! Putting scores and medals here! smile.gif

Edit edit: reposting ADSIC links for this page!

ADSIC Links:
Texas Regionals 2018

Region II
Region III
Region IV
Region V
Region VI
Region VII
Region VIII
Region IX
Region X
Region XI
Region XII
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Guest_ridgepoinths_*
post Jan 20 2018, 11:19 PM
Post #22





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QUOTE (TinDefacto @ Jan 20 2018, 02:48 PM) *
Region VII:

1. Dulles 49,753.8 (missing V2)
2. James E. Taylor 47,220.1
3. Seven Lakes 47,179.0
4. Morton Ranch 43,660.4
5. Katy 40,243.6
6. Tompkins 39,334.3
7. Ridge Point 38,493.2
8. Cinco Ranch 38,415.4
9. George Ranch 33,776.5

Achutha Srinivasan from Taylor top score with 9,321.9.

(This is one of those regions that got hit really hard in subs.)

Edit: already have full VII results! Putting scores and medals here! smile.gif

Edit edit: reposting ADSIC links for this page!

ADSIC Links:
Texas Regionals 2018

Region II
Region III
Region IV
Region V
Region VI
Region VII
Region VIII
Region IX
Region X
Region XI
Region XII

Wow, you got those online quickly. I think you placed the speech scores in there twice by accident - the interview scores were not listed correctly as of this posting. Hope some of the other regions start reporting. The Region VII meet was run well and it's nice to get done quicker, but I will say that personally I feel that Region VII is so much harder in subjectives than where we were last year (Region V). We lost almost 2,000 points in subjectives from last year's regionals to this year and about 1700 from our district meet a month ago to today. I know it's "subjective" and every coach has their horror stories, but I do think Region VII has a difficulty level with subjectives judging that's on a different level than perhaps some other regions.
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TinDefacto
post Jan 20 2018, 11:38 PM
Post #23


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Keller and Lebanon Trail win Region XI's Large and Small competitions, respectively! Aubrey 4th in Small.

QUOTE (ridgepoinths @ Jan 20 2018, 07:19 PM) *
The Region VII meet was run well and it's nice to get done quicker, but I will say that personally I feel that Region VII is so much harder in subjectives than where we were last year (Region V). We lost almost 2,000 points in subjectives from last year's regionals to this year and about 1700 from our district meet a month ago to today. I know it's "subjective" and every coach has their horror stories, but I do think Region VII has a difficulty level with subjectives judging that's on a different level than perhaps some other regions.

Oh yeah, VII has a history of bad subs. Usually it's in Essay, which was a bit better this year (thanks Nick!), but Speech and Interview were pretty low for a variety of reasons I've heard. :/ But with the scores and subs I've seen, it doesn't look like 39k will be the cutoff anymore -- probably much closer to 38k.

QUOTE (ridgepoinths @ Jan 20 2018, 07:19 PM) *
I think you placed the speech scores in there twice by accident - the interview scores were not listed correctly as of this posting.

Ahhhh!! Fixed! smile.gif


Update: Magnolia West second place in Region VI Medium presumably behind Foster.

And J.J. Pearce second place in Region X, Plano Senior 5th.

Update update: In IX Large, Coppell takes 1st (!), Marcus 2nd, Hebron 3rd! I did not call that right.
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Guest_Scholastic Underdog_*
post Jan 21 2018, 12:39 AM
Post #24





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QUOTE (ridgepoinths @ Jan 20 2018, 05:19 PM) *
Wow, you got those online quickly. I think you placed the speech scores in there twice by accident - the interview scores were not listed correctly as of this posting. Hope some of the other regions start reporting. The Region VII meet was run well and it's nice to get done quicker, but I will say that personally I feel that Region VII is so much harder in subjectives than where we were last year (Region V). We lost almost 2,000 points in subjectives from last year's regionals to this year and about 1700 from our district meet a month ago to today. I know it's "subjective" and every coach has their horror stories, but I do think Region VII has a difficulty level with subjectives judging that's on a different level than perhaps some other regions.

Subs were much harder in our region than would be seen at state, with most teams somewhere around 1k below where they’d likely be. Essay, from what I could see, was closer to what would be seen at state (though still not where we want, there was one judge in particular who hurt scores). One issue with essay was that 2/3 of decathletes wrote on the same prompt, and about 90% used the same evidence—therefore, people who came first ended up with higher scores due to their thoughts seeming “original”, while later essays just felt like copy-and-paste identical essays with no original thought. Unfortunately I couldn’t get that bias out of the readers, but they generally followed my guideline of “500 should really be your floor, unless it’s a pretty bad essay”.

However, with that came very bad speech and interview scores for a lot of schools. Speech had literally-dozens of issues throughout the night, from timers not doing their jobs to the event being run COMPLETELY wrong (people being told to draw a card for impromptu, being told they have to hold the index card, having to announce their topic before beginning). Overall, speech training was done truly awfully, and from what I’ve been told all the training time was focused on the “how to score this” side of things, by which I mean how to input your scores. Y’know, that thing where you circle a number and a scantron reader does the rest for you. Speech was very badly run, and I really hope it’s done better next year. Interview wasn’t awful, but judges were heavily dissuaded from giving 1,000’s, being essentially told “If you give someone a 1000 it’d better be the best thing you’ve heard in your life”. While that’s a fine perspective to have for interview, it led to many judges grading much harsher than they would have otherwise, reflected in the fact that there were zero 1,000’s in the entire region.

Overall, subs basically took one step forward and then another one back, which I hope we fix for the future.
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TinDefacto
post Jan 21 2018, 12:52 AM
Post #25


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Plano East won Region X!

Region IX Medium:
1. Lone Star (WOW)
2. Centennial
3. Wakeland
4. Reedy
5. The Colony

Liberty was a bit further down... all I know is we were murdered in subs. I guess I should have kept in mind when I was doing predictions that our longtime master subs coach left after last year...
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Guest_Alex Zhu_*
post Jan 21 2018, 01:17 AM
Post #26





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QUOTE (TinDefacto @ Jan 21 2018, 01:52 AM) *
Plano East won Region X!

Region IX Medium:
1. Lone Star (WOW)
2. Centennial
3. Wakeland
4. Reedy
5. The Colony

Liberty was a bit further down... all I know is we were murdered in subs. I guess I should have kept in mind when I was doing predictions that our longtime master subs coach left after last year...


Also from that region Coppell was 1st and Hebron was 3rd. I don't know for sure, but I would assume Nimitz was probably 2nd.
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TinDefacto
post Jan 21 2018, 01:19 AM
Post #27


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QUOTE (Alex Zhu @ Jan 20 2018, 09:17 PM) *
QUOTE (TinDefacto @ Jan 21 2018, 01:52 AM) *
Plano East won Region X!

Region IX Medium:
1. Lone Star (WOW)
2. Centennial
3. Wakeland
4. Reedy
5. The Colony

Liberty was a bit further down... all I know is we were murdered in subs. I guess I should have kept in mind when I was doing predictions that our longtime master subs coach left after last year...


Also from that region Coppell was 1st and Hebron was 3rd. I don't know for sure, but I would assume Nimitz was probably 2nd.

Marcus was second, actually; not sure where Nimitz was. Do you know any individuals for the region? I think I saw on Twitter that Coppell's top student broke 9k?
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Lab
post Jan 21 2018, 01:48 AM
Post #28


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Region X

1. Plano East: 46961
2. JJ Pierce: 46706
3. Rockwall: 45461
4. Heath: 44872
5. Plano: 43085
6. HP: 42892

Also Rockwall and Heath tied for 1st place in Super Quiz. A nice way to continue the cross town rivalry.


--------------------
Lucas Beville
Rockwall, TX
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Guest_ridgepoinths_*
post Jan 21 2018, 01:49 AM
Post #29





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Friendswood & Dobie finish 1-2 in Region 5 Large School.
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TinDefacto
post Jan 21 2018, 02:20 AM
Post #30


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QUOTE (LAB @ Jan 20 2018, 09:48 PM) *
Region X

1. Plano East: 46961
2. JJ Pierce: 46706
3. Rockwall: 45461
4. Heath: 44872
5. Plano: 43085
6. HP: 42892

Also Rockwall and Heath tied for 1st place in Super Quiz. A nice way to continue the cross town rivalry.

Apparently Sophie Cope of Pearce scored 9,510. jaw-dropping.gif We have a new Texas record on our hands!

Also, yeah, apparently Highland Park only had one Varsity. But they'll have a full squad come State.

Barbers Hill won V Medium! Pearland 3rd in Large.

Update: Region VIII:

1. Lubbock
2. Summit
3. Little Elm
4. Monterey

BAM, four for four!

Never mind; Wylie East took third and pushed the other two down! Wow.

Also, more X scores:

1. Plano East: 46961
2. JJ Pierce: 46706
3. Rockwall: 45461
4. Heath: 44872
5. Plano: 43085
6. HP: 42892
7. Richardson 42266
8. Berkner 39,818
9. John Paul II 39,120
10. Rowlett 37,750
11. Lakeview Centennial 37,105
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Guest_Honourable Honors_*
post Jan 21 2018, 02:36 AM
Post #31





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Yeah! Sophie is totally awesome! Go JJP! Also, congratulations to everyone who made state today. Happy studying!
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Lab
post Jan 21 2018, 03:00 AM
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QUOTE (TinDefacto @ Jan 20 2018, 08:20 PM) *
Apparently Sophie Cope of Pearce scored 9,510. jaw-dropping.gif We have a new Texas record on our hands!


As much as I wanted Wes's record to remain forever, Sophie did an excellent job. She cleaned house at the awards ceremony. Huge congrats to her and her very impressive score.


--------------------
Lucas Beville
Rockwall, TX
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TinDefacto
post Jan 21 2018, 03:29 AM
Post #33


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King was first in III Medium, and it seems like John Marshall took first in IV Large. And Martin first in VIII Large!

Update: Alvin 41,470.8! First time over 40k in at least a very long time. smile.gif

And, Sam Houston HS takes first in IV Medium. Congrats to them!!
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stanleytree
post Jan 21 2018, 03:46 AM
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Dulles- 49, 753.8
Objectives- 35,645.8
Subjectives- 14,108

Sophie- 9,069.6 (6,542.9)
Jeffrey- 8,399.3 (5,874.3)
Matthew- 7,723.1 (5,311.4)

Sam- 9,016.4 (6,611.4)
Moeez- 8,271.6 (5,888.6)
Vani- 8,014 (5,745.7)

Leighton- 8,240.6 (5,888.6)
Logan- 6,756.3 (4,840)
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Guest_GJNHS_*
post Jan 21 2018, 03:52 AM
Post #35





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QUOTE (Alex Zhu @ Jan 20 2018, 07:17 PM) *
QUOTE (TinDefacto @ Jan 21 2018, 01:52 AM) *
Plano East won Region X!

Region IX Medium:
1. Lone Star (WOW)
2. Centennial
3. Wakeland
4. Reedy
5. The Colony

Liberty was a bit further down... all I know is we were murdered in subs. I guess I should have kept in mind when I was doing predictions that our longtime master subs coach left after last year...


Also from that region Coppell was 1st and Hebron was 3rd. I don't know for sure, but I would assume Nimitz was probably 2nd.


Nimitz was fifth...ending a 30 year run of coming in either first or second at Regionals (25 first place and 5 second place). Irving High School had its highest finish ever, placing 4th.
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TinDefacto
post Jan 21 2018, 04:29 AM
Post #36


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QUOTE (GJNHS @ Jan 20 2018, 11:52 PM) *
Nimitz was fifth...ending a 30 year run of coming in either first or second at Regionals (25 first place and 5 second place). Irving High School had its highest finish ever, placing 4th.

I am so sorry. :/ The region was ultra competitive this year. Clearly your students put in an incredible amount of work after Round 1; that's what's really impressive.
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Guest_J Eberhard_*
post Jan 21 2018, 04:51 AM
Post #37





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QUOTE (TinDefacto @ Jan 19 2018, 02:26 AM) *
MASSIVE PREDICTIONS POST ZOMG!!!1!!

Aaaaaand I am finally done with my predictions for this year's Texas Regionals competitions!!! Last year I was so busy that they were pretty sloppily thrown together, but this year I have somehow managed to scrape enough time together to refine my methods and delve deeper, and I'm pretty confident in these overall. Granted, I'm still probably definitely immensely wrong about lots of most things, so I'm looking forward to joining you all in laughing at this later. tongue.gif

Some schools have a ton of info from this already, meaning we have a pretty good idea of where they stand. Others, not so much. Some of these are total shots in the dark. But definitely much fewer than in previous years. smile.gif

So, without further ado...

Top Ten Teams Overall
1. Dulles - 52,133.0
2. Lubbock - 50,240.1
3. Highland Park - 50,002.1
4. Morton Ranch - 48,223.4
5. James E. Taylor - 48,181.1
6. Friendswood - 47,958.5
7. Klein - 47,847.3
8. Hebron - 47,444.7
9. J.J. Pearce - 47,409.9
10. Rockwall-Heath - 46,895.8

Advancing Large Schools
1. Dulles - 52,133.0
2. Morton Ranch - 48,223.4
3. James E. Taylor - 48,181.1
4. Friendswood - 47,958.5
5. Klein - 47,847.3
6. Hebron - 47,444.7
7. J.J. Pearce - 47,409.9
8. Rockwall-Heath - 46,895.8
9. Seven Lakes - 46,714.4
10. Plano East - 46,541.9
11. Clear Lake - 46,341.9
12. Marcus - 46,256.4
13. Rockwall - 45,688.9
14. Pearland - 45,521.5
15. Coppell - 45,078.1
16. Plano Senior - 44,854.1
17. Nimitz - 44,631.4
18. Keller - 44,363.3
19. Irving - 44,128.6
20. J. Frank Dobie - 43,214.3
21. Clear Creek - 42,947.7
22. Richardson - 42,811.2
23. Martin - 42,783.4
24. Pasadena Memorial - 42,736.4
25. Arlington - 42,713.8
26. Alvin - 42,085.6
27. Flower Mound - 41,800.6
28. Montgomery - 41,788.6
29. Cinco Ranch - 41,429.3
30. Klein Collins - 41,242.9
31. Clear Springs - 40,985.7
32. Ridge Point - 40,589.4
33. Townview Talented & Gifted - 40532.4
34. John Marshall - 40,249.8
35. Tompkins - 39,848.6
36. Earl Warren - 39,547.6
37. Katy - 39,328.9
38. John Paul II - 39,213.7
39. Fossil Ridge - 39,023.6
40. El Paso Coronado - 38,742.1 (Region II winner)

At 39k, this would be the highest State cutoff in likely all of Texas history -- narrowly edging out 2016's cutoff of 38,478.7 points (as made by Alvin High School). I feel like all the teams listed over 40k I'm extremely confident about making it, but there're a couple of teams that I have right underneath that cutoff -- namely Holmes, O'Connor, and Wylie -- that could get lucky and jump up to make the cut, and especially with the lack of information on any of those teams, it's hard to be sure. I will say that having Tompkins and Katy up there are purely speculation from rumors that I've heard, so I could very well see one of those aforementioned teams edging in there in their stead, or perhaps some complete dark horse I'm missing out on here.

Advancing Medium Schools
1. Lubbock - 50,240.1
2. Highland Park - 50,002.1
3. Summit - 46,311.4
4. Little Elm - 45,323.7
5. Monterey - 45,103.9
6. Wakeland - 44,519.8
7. Centennial - 44,431.7
8. Wylie East - 43,441.8
9. Foster - 43,422.8
10. Barbers Hill - 43,240.7
11. Reedy - 42,714.4
12. Liberty - 42,707.6
13. The Colony - 42,079.3
14. Lone Star - 41,798.6
15. Richard King - 41,437.8
16. Heritage - 40,676.1
17. Lubbock Coronado - 39,773.4
18. Elkins - 39,647.1
19. Independence - 39,478.7
20. Talkington - 38,589.3
21. Seagoville - 38,081.4
22. Alice - 37,823.1
23. Tuloso-Midway - 37,742.3
24. Poteet - 36,423.4
25. Legacy - 36,331.6
26. El Paso - 35,923.4
27. Frisco - 35,857.9
28. Veterans Memorial - 35,852.7
29. W.B. Ray - 35,676.9
30. Champion - 33,627.1 (Region IV winner)

Adjusting for the change from 25 to 30 Medium schools advancing (first made in 2016), this would also be the highest-ever cutoff -- Poteet would be the last in if it were 25 schools, and the mid-36k range would barely beat last year's 36,033.3 by Tuloso-Midway. As usual, I am pretty unsure of the teams near the bottom, especially because a lot of these Region III teams especially are pure speculation. But I think only a handful of other teams couple potentially make it -- if someone else butts in, it'll be Mary Carroll, or Lake Ridge, or maybe one of the Magnolia schools. Or, perhaps, a dark horse. We shall see.

Advancing Small Schools
1. Lebanon Trail - 44,244.8
2. Bandera - 42,214.3
3. Taylor - 35,640.1
4. Estacado - 33,478.5
5. A.C. Jones - 33,258.4
6. Liberty - 32,503.7
7. Aubrey - 30,547.6
8. Sinton - 30,423.6
9. Robert G. Cole - 29,476.2
10. Randolph - 27,348.9

With just 12 Small schools competing across the entire state (having lost John Paul II, ILT, and several others due to TAD rules about private/charter schools), the struggle to advance isn't exactly the most competitive, but the teams at the top are I think the strongest since 2008. Bandera's really stepped it up these past couple of years, taking the state title last year and back even stronger this year. This will almost certainly be their first time hitting 40k, but now they're up against a fully-staffed Lebanon Trail, whose first year of existence last year earned them 32k with a completely freshman team and just one Varsity. I think their face-off as well as seeing the growth of some of the other will make this season very interesting to watch. I will say though that the majority of these scores are just complete guesses due to no one knowing anything about how they've been doing this year -- the 10th place team may as well have been drawn from a hat. But I went with my gut, so we shall see.

REGION BY REGION
Region I:
lol

Region II:
As usual, we haven't really heard anything out of El Paso, so it's tough to know who'll come out on top, or around how they'll do. But considering that Coronado and El Paso HS have both won their respective sizes nine of the last ten years... I feel like that's pretty safe!

Large:
1. Coronado - 38,742.1

Medium:
1. El Paso - 35,923.4

Region III:
Region III is still pretty strange with only four Large schools, meaning that even the winner isn't guaranteed to advance to State. This year, IDEA Academy is joining them from Small schools, but I don't see them challenging Vela or Harlingen South, the main contenders for the title.

Meanwhile, in Medium, there are a ton of contenders for advancement, though the far majority are in the mid-30k's range. Only longtime region victor Richard King (at least 14 years and counting) will likely be over 40k. But, for all those afraid of Alice drifting off into obscurity after legendary coach Eberhard's departure, fear not: they've assembled a team this year that seems to be stronger than last year's 36k team, and may push 38k, suggesting that they're still here to stay. For the others, Tuloso-Midway has a fair chance for second, seemingly right behind with Alice, and recent (2014) recruit Veterans Memorial seems to be on pace for their first-ever trip to State. State veterans W.B. Ray and Mary Carroll are likely to cluster around there too, making for a total of 6 State advancers.

Lastly, in Small (Region III is the only region to have competitions in all three categories!), Bandera is almost certainly uncontested to win, although one can never really be sure what Taylor has up their sleeves -- they could be 35k just as much as they could be 40k. That being said, Bandera should win handily regardless, and the other schools will likely provide the bulk of teams advancing to State, including Liberty High School of Liberty ISD, back and stronger than ever after a five-year hiatus! (Though I'd be lying if I said the namespace collision with my alma mater didn't irk me...)

Large:
1. Harlingen South - 32,148.2
2. Vela - 31,483.7

Medium:
1. Richard King - 41,437.8
2. Alice - 37,823.1
3. Tuloso-Midway - 37,742.3
4. Veterans Memorial - 35,852.7
5. W.B. Ray - 35,676.9
6. Mary Carroll - 35,251.4

Small:
1. Bandera - 42,214.3
2. Taylor - 35,640.1
3. A.C. Jones - 33,258.4
4. Liberty - 32,503.7
5. Sinton - 30,423.6
6. Robert G. Cole - 29,476.2
7. Randolph - 27,348.9

Region IV:
Region IV is another one we often don't know too much about, and while we thankfully do know more than usual this year, the intimidating thing is that all the Northside schools are completely unpredictable from year to year. It seems like every season they send a totally different set of teams, and there's always some school having a randomly good year. That's why I think a lot of uncertainty in the state advancers comes from Region IV, but I'm still reasonably positive that Marshall will win and Warren will be second. After that, it seems to be between Holmes and O'Connor, but exactly who will beat the other -- and whether they make the State cutoff -- is up in the air.

And then for Medium... I have utterly no idea. My gut says Champion will return -- their longtime coach left and they didn't field a full team last year -- but we could totally see completely crazy things take place here. I doubt the winning school will be very high, but I do know that they will advance to State regardless since they have well over five schools competing for the regional title.

Large:
1. John Marshall - 40,249.8
2. Earl Warren - 39,547.6
3. Oliver Wendell Holmes - 38,889.7
4. Sandra Day O'Connor - 38,604.2
5. Brandeis - 35,441.4
6. Tom C. Clark - 34,721.0

Medium:
1. Champion - 33,627.1

Region V:
Ah, Region V. One of the most competitive regions in the state, and likely with more 40k teams than ever this year. Friendswood looks well-poised to take back their regional title again, though exactly where they'll be score-wise could vary madly -- I'd say anywhere from 46.5k to 49k. Regardless, I think upper 47k is the most likely, and they seem to have first place in the bag no matter what happens. Next up is Clear Lake, who seem to be having their best year since 2014 and who may take second place for the first time in their history. Pearland and Dobie follow before a whole host of teams that look to be having their best seasons ever -- Clear Creek, Pasadena Memorial, and Alvin -- and Clear Springs, completing the whopping 8 teams over 40k. Friendswood will likely dominate, but there are a lot of impressive teams here.

Large:
1. Friendswood - 47,958.5
2. Clear Lake - 46,341.9
3. Pearland - 45,521.5
4. J. Frank Dobie - 43,214.3
5. Clear Creek - 42,947.7
6. Pasadena Memorial - 42,736.4
7. Alvin - 42,085.6
8. Clear Springs - 40,985.7
9. Turner - 38,106.7
10. Clear Brook - 35,517.6
11. Deer Park - 35,487.9
12. Dickinson - 34,476.4
13. La Porte - 33,247.8

Region VI:
Another region with little available information, Region VI tends not to get a lot of attention compared to its fellow Houston regions of V and VII, but the putative nascent powerhouse that is Klein High School may start changing that soon. With nearly 32k at Round 1, Klein is currently ranked fifth in the state of Texas, although it's unclear whether that was the first time they took those Round 1 tests or not. Whatever the case, they certainly look to be improving upon last year's 46.3k team by a fair amount, which could pose immensely fruitful this season. Other teams in Large likely to advance this year are Klein Collins, who have been in the low 40k's pretty consistently for the past couple of years; and Montgomery, who have been to State every year since at least 2002. Neither of them have any scores known for this season yet though, so they could be anywhere.

Meanwhile, in Medium, longtime state advancer Foster will almost certainly take first, though any scores are complete speculation for them or their competition. The closest competition though is likely to be a Magnolia school, likely Magnolia West, who, if strong enough, could win their second-ever state run.

Large:
1. Klein - 47,847.3
2. Montgomery - 41,788.6
3. Klein Collins - 41,242.9
4. Eisenhower - 36,369.7
5. DeBakey School for Health Professions - 35,291.4
6. Klein Oak - 34,214.6

Medium:
1. Foster - 43,422.8
2. Magnolia West - 34,181.0

Region VII:
Another of the five hypercompetitive regions, Region VII, though small in participation (only about 15 schools, which isn't much), looks like they will have some of their fiercest competition yet with who I think will be the top three Large schools in the state. Dulles, in their fourth year, is making a total run for the state title and seems close to unstoppable -- depending on subjectives, I could see anything from upper 51k to low 53k. Meanwhile, Katy ISD is coming in strong with two teams I think likely to push or hit 48k and another third in the 46k range. Together with Cinco Ranch, seemingly back from a four-year break from making to State, and Katy and Tomkins, rumored to have talented teams this year, it seems plausible that every Katy ISD school except Mayde Creek will be advancing this year. However, these being rumors, I'm not too sure of my level of confidence, and I could be completely wrong. Aside from them, Ridge Point (newly transferred from Region V, where they grew up) is looking to have their first-ever 40k year, but Clements, the longtime powerhouse of Fort Bend ISD, may be seeing their first year of not making it to State for several decades.

Large:
1. Dulles - 52,133.0
2. Morton Ranch - 48,223.4
3. James E. Taylor - 48,181.1
4. Seven Lakes - 46,714.4
5. Cinco Ranch - 41,429.3
6. Ridge Point - 40,589.4
7. Tompkins - 39,848.6
8. Katy - 39,328.9
9. George Ranch - 35,543.4
10. Clements - 35,142.8
11. Bush - 33,324.7

Region VIII:
A couple of years ago, no one would have said that Region VIII was a particularly competitive region -- neither Arlington in Large nor Summit in Medium had faced serious competition in years, and aside from the occasional runner-up sneaking in, they were the only ones who advanced to State. But last year saw a dramatic influx of talent into the Medium pool with Little Elm and the Lubbock schools moving in, and this year looks to be even more competitive with the additions of Wylie East in Medium and a newly energized Martin in Large. Martin actually beat Arlington by about 400 points at the Irving Invitational (USAD Medium) back in November, which is impressive in its own right, but even crazier when taking into account that Martin finished dead last in the region in 2016 with 22k. From there to their 38k performance last year, and their likely 42k+ performance this year, I don't know exactly what they're doing, but they seem to be doing it right.

I can't say for sure who will come out on top in Large, but between the lead they had in November and their complete dominance in subjectives last year, I'm leaning toward Martin. However, a lot can change in a couple of months, and I'm excited to see these two great teams face off -- whatever happens, I'm sure it'll be close.

Not to be understated, Wylie has also been emerging recently, narrowly making it to State last year and perhaps in the running again for this year. I know nothing about how they're doing, but quite honestly, I don't think 40k would be unreasonable. Nonetheless, I think the 38k range is more likely, so that's what I'm going with for now.

Oh, and then the situation in Medium. It looks like maybe nearly a third of the Medium State advancers will be coming from Region VIII this year -- Lubbock dominating the top with perhaps their greatest team in history (certainly the case score-wise). Depending on subs, we could either see just under above or below 50k, but given their history of subs, I think just over is much more likely. Behind them is Summit, one of the only top teams actually native to the region and a team which has recently gone from occasionally hitting 40k to a powerhouse at the top of the Medium schools contention. Next up, Little Elm, in their third year, I think is likely to take third, just edging out Monterey before first-year team Wylie East comes in fifth with 43k (which is insanely impressive for a first-year team). Coronado seems likely to just miss out on 40k, and Talkington looks to be having their best year yet with about 38k. As for the rest, they're mostly just shots in the dark, but Legacy almost almost always makes it to State, and Lake Ridge could be right on the border.

Large:
1. Martin - 42,783.4
2. Arlington - 42,713.8
3. Wylie - 38,487.6
4. Lamar - 34,282.3

Medium:
1. Lubbock - 50,240.1
2. Summit - 46,311.4
3. Little Elm - 45,323.7
4. Monterey - 45,103.9
5. Wylie East - 43,441.8
6. Lubbock Coronado - 39,773.4
7. Talkington - 38,589.3
8. Legacy - 36,331.6
9. Lake Ridge - 35,021.7
10. Waxahachie - 32,527.8

Region IX:
Home sweet home! biggrin.gif

Region IX is insane this year. Medium, as infested with Frisco schools as it is, is always pretty insane, but Large will have a record number of teams over 40k this year with a whopping total of six. Perhaps most interesting is the emergence of Hebron as a true force to be reckoned with -- they put up an impressive 44k last year, but this time around they look poised to put that to shame. Over the course of a month, they turned a 1400-point deficit to Marcus into a 1400-point lead (the Round 1 scores don't reflect as much because they were missing their V1, but with them they were pushing 32k). I have no idea what they may have been up to in the month since, but it seems like 47k could be the lower bound.

Now, all that said, that's no reason to overlook Marcus, who also have a stellar team this year and who will likely be over 46k (perhaps their best ever score). Coppell is more mysterious, but if they hold up their USAD Easy well, they seem likely to have another 45k year. Whether or not that'll be enough to beat Nimitz though is very uncertain -- I don't know what kind of witchcraft Nimitz engages in after Round 1, but if they pull another 2017 they could even challenge Marcus. I think upper 44k is a safe guess though. Right behind them -- or, if the cards are right, right ahead of them -- is Irving, a fantastic newly rising team that was putting up sub-30k scores as recently as 2014. Finishing off the 40k scores will be Flower Mound, back up from their 30k last year due to an incomplete team at Regionals, and likely to make their highest score in a decade.

On the Medium side of things, there's surprisingly no new Frisco school this year, but that won't stop them from dominating. The champion will be a toss-up between Wakeland and Centennial, but I'm thinking Wakeland's edge in subjectives will be enough to push them over the finish line. Whatever the case, it'll be close, as I think it will be between third and fourth places -- Liberty back up (yes, actually) from a rebuilding year last year and the second-newest high school Reedy looking to have their first-ever 40k year. In fifth place, it's looking like The Colony will be interrupting the FISD lovefest with their most impressive showing yet, and Lone Star, Heritage and Independence will trailing behind them. Before the last Frisco school though, I'm thinking Poteet will put up another 36k+ showing and make it to State again.

I'm very confident that this will be the second year in a row that all nine FISD high schools make it to State -- the only iffy one is the district's eponymous school, which should beat out all of those 35k Region III schools but which is still endangered by Region IX's legendarily murderous subs. Keeping my fingers crossed for them.

Large:
1. Hebron - 47,444.7
2. Marcus - 46,256.4
3. Coppell - 45,078.1
4. Nimitz - 44,631.4
5. Irving - 44,128.6
6. Flower Mound - 41,800.6
7. MacArthur - 35,517.9
8. Lewisville - 35,103.6

Medium:
1. Wakeland - 44,519.8
2. Centennial - 44,431.7
3. Reedy - 42,714.4
4. Liberty - 42,707.6
5. The Colony - 42,079.3
6. Lone Star - 41,798.6
7. Heritage - 40,676.1
8. Independence - 39,478.7
9. Poteet - 36,423.4
10. Frisco - 35,857.9

Region X:
While Highland Park has dominated it for the past several years, Region X is home to a multitude of other talented teams, including the Rockwalls, the Planos, and the Richardsons (okay, that one doesn't work as well...). While one major question is certainly that of whether Highland Park will hit 50k again this time around (or whether they'll beat out Lubbock), also particularly interesting is the layout of the other teams that have shown so much promise throughout this year's pre-season. I'm fairly convinced that J.J. Pearce will emerge victorious of Large schools, though I certainly think that Rockwall-Heath has a good chance as well. One recent addition to Region X is John Paul II, formerly of Small schools, whose days of easy state advancement are over but who I think will still make it year after year.

Large:
1. J.J. Pearce - 47,409.9
2. Rockwall-Heath - 46,895.8
3. Plano East - 46,541.9
4. Rockwall - 45,688.9
5. Plano Senior - 44,854.1
6. Richardson - 42,811.2
7. John Paul II - 39,213.7
8. Berkner - 38,128.7
9. Garland - 37,532.9
10. Rowlett - 35,646.4
11. Lakeview Centennial - 35,387.1
12. Plano West - 34,618.2
13. ILT Garland - 34,181.6
14. Sachse - 33,361.7
15. Lake Highlands - 32,878.6

Medium:
1. Highland Park - 50,002.1

Region XI:
It's been a pleasure the past several years to watch Keller grow more powerful once again, and I think at this year's Region XI competition we'll be seeing them field their best team in years. Not only that, but Fossil Ridge looks right on the line to make it to State for the first time since 2009! Meanwhile, in Small, Lebanon Trail leads the way with what will surely be a massively impressive score for a bunch of freshmen and sophomores.

Large:
1. Keller - 44,363.3
2. Fossil Ridge - 39,023.6
3. Permian - 36,817.4
4. Timber Creek - 36,584.3
5. South Grand Prairie - 35,992.8
6. Midland - 33,478.1
7. Grand Prairie - 33,424.7
8. Central - 33,421.9
9. Odessa - 32227.9

Small:
1. Lebanon Trail - 44,244.8
2. Estacado - 33,478.5
3. Aubrey - 30,547.6

Region XII:
Aaaand I think Dallas ISD may have finally gotten it!

It's been great this year to see DISD schools not only at Rockwall's USAD Easy competition but also branching out to other scrimmages across the area -- not to mention also scoring quite impressively! The tenure of Townview's School for Science and Engineering looks like it'll be taken away by the talented Townview Talented & Gifted team, who could very well be the first DISD team to score over 40k in approximately ages. In Medium, Seagoville looks similarly like they're having a strong year, even if not quite 40k-level. Could this be the first year that neither advance just because they're region victors??

Large:
1. Townview Talented & Gifted - 40,532.4
2. Townview Science & Engineering - 37,546.1
3. Lassiter Early College - 34,429.3
4. Irma Rangel - 32,973.7

Medium:
1. Seagoville - 38,081.4
2. Molina - 32,148.3

-------------------------

ANYWAY. WOW I just spent way too long writing that and it's 3:30 am and have to get up in three and a half hours and how on earth did I do this every day in high school?? I am not ~young~ anymore. halp.

To all of those current competitors reading this: best of luck, and go forth and conquer! biggrin.gif



dude, your Region III predictions were freakishly good... team scores were +/- a couple hundred for most of the teams. lol I can almost hear you repeating "4 minutes to Wapner... 1 minute to Wapner, oh boy, uh, uh" (Rain Man allusion for those who didn't catch it).
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TinDefacto
post Jan 21 2018, 05:09 AM
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QUOTE (J Eberhard @ Jan 21 2018, 12:51 AM) *
dude, your Region III predictions were freakishly good... team scores were +/- a couple hundred for most of the teams. lol I can almost hear you repeating "4 minutes to Wapner... 1 minute to Wapner, oh boy, uh, uh" (Rain Man allusion for those who didn't catch it).

Oh? Do tell... popcorn.gif Do you have the scores?
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Guest_GJNHS_*
post Jan 21 2018, 05:19 AM
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QUOTE (TinDefacto @ Jan 20 2018, 10:29 PM) *
QUOTE (GJNHS @ Jan 20 2018, 11:52 PM) *
Nimitz was fifth...ending a 30 year run of coming in either first or second at Regionals (25 first place and 5 second place). Irving High School had its highest finish ever, placing 4th.

I am so sorry. :/ The region was ultra competitive this year. Clearly your students put in an incredible amount of work after Round 1; that's what's really impressive.


This was without question the strongest field ever assembled in Region IX. Hebron and Irving High had their strongest teams ever and Marcus had the best team that it has had in many, many years. Coppell is...Coppell, so it was indeed ultra competitive. I am very proud of my young team, though, and their efforts since Round 1. While some teams either regressed or stayed roughly the same, we improved by over 2500 points. If we can somehow overcome our subjective difficulties, I believe that we can perform even better at the State Meet.
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Guest_J Eberhard_*
post Jan 21 2018, 06:05 AM
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QUOTE (TinDefacto @ Jan 20 2018, 11:09 PM) *
QUOTE (J Eberhard @ Jan 21 2018, 12:51 AM) *
dude, your Region III predictions were freakishly good... team scores were +/- a couple hundred for most of the teams. lol I can almost hear you repeating "4 minutes to Wapner... 1 minute to Wapner, oh boy, uh, uh" (Rain Man allusion for those who didn't catch it).

Oh? Do tell... popcorn.gif Do you have the scores?


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