Arizona Regionals 2018, Guaranteed amAZing Options

[TinDefacto]

Arizona's Regionals competitions are this Saturday!! Let's talk about it.

I will try to do some predictions this week, but no promises -- I'll be spending most of the week frantically preparing for the Massachusetts competition! Good luck to everyone in your preparations this week!

[acadecker]

The top tier teams in the state are clearly CDO, Cesar Chavez, and Hamilton. In tier two we have (in no particular order): Mesa Mountain View, Westwood, BASIS Chandler, Higley, Seton Catholic, Boulder Creek, Mountain View Marana.

CDO, Hamilton, and Cesar Chavez will easily win each of their respective regions. Of interest in each region, then, will be in seeing which schools can break into the #2 and #3 spots.

[TinDefacto]

ALRIGHT I did some predictions. Is this my first time doing them for Arizona Regionals?! If so, that's sad, though I mainly blame their website for not saying when Regionals is and therefore leaving me in surprise when I find out it's less than a week away!

So... right off the bat, we have the big rivalry this year between Cesar Chavez and Canyon del Oro. Who will come out on top?? I think that for now, they'll be really close in objectives, with CDO likely being a bit in the lead, but when you compare the ways their two regions handle subs historically, it seems very likely Cesar Chavez will end up leading CDO by maybe a thousand points -- probably around 47.5k to 46.5k, I think. Subs are always up in the air, but it certainly gives a big disadvantage to CDO score-wise between the two.

But otherwise, I think Decker is right -- the region winners are (mostly) clear, and it all comes down to who takes 2nd and 3rd in each. So let's explore!!

Region I:
Their Round 1 scores are close, but I think Kingman Academy will probably continue their five-year regional championship streak. Third is less certain, but James Madison Prep had a relatively good year last year (not sure if they'd ever broken 30k before), and could either keep that 31k or keep growing to win. On the other hand, Prescott could also easily take third place, or maybe even higher, if they're doing better this year.

1. Kingman Academy - 33k
2. St. Johns - 33k
3. James Madison Prep - 31k

Region II:
We already established Cesar Chavez as the winner for Region II, but second and third seem to be much less definite. Boulder Creek seems to be in about the same shape as last year, but BASIS Peoria is much stronger than in the previous season and could easily edge them out of their second place spot (which is what I think will happen). On the other hand, we could see another surprise showing from Alhambra like last year, so we can't count them out!

1. Cesar Chavez - 47.5k
2. BASIS Peoria - 39k
3. Boulder Creek - 38.5k

Region III:
Again, the winner here is hardly doubtful, but second and third could prove interesting. Mountain View Marana, while not as strong as the past couple of years, is still in the running, but even more interestingly is how Desert View seems to be doing -- a team in its third year, it's improved tremendously so far this season, and winning second place is not out of the question. Which would be huge for them! Of course, there are other contenders like Buena, Marana and Sonoran Science Academy to watch out for, but I think Desert View and Mountain View Marana will come out on (just-under-)top.

1. Canyon del Oro - 46.5k
2. Desert View - 35k
3. Mountain View Marana - 34.5k

Region IV:
Always the most competitive, even if they don't have a run for the state title, Region IV is where most of the 40k teams will be competing. And this year, along with the more familiar names at the top, I think we'll be seeing a new 40k'er -- Seton Catholic! First or second in any of the other regions, I think they'll take fourth here, but it could very well end up much closer than I'm expecting and switch around a bit. Hamilton will almost certainly come out on top, and Westwood and MVM near each other behind them. Should be very interesting competition to watch.

1. Hamilton - 44k
2. Westwood - 42k
3. Mountain View Mesa - 41.5k
4. Seton Catholic - 40.5k
5. BASIS Chandler - 39.5k

--------

What does everyone think? I hope everyone's preparations and studiment are coming along well!!

[Guest_nixonotis_*]

ALRIGHT I did some predictions. Is this my first time doing them for Arizona Regionals?! If so, that's sad, though I mainly blame their website for not saying when Regionals is and therefore leaving me in surprise when I find out it's less than a week away!

So... right off the bat, we have the big rivalry this year between Cesar Chavez and Canyon del Oro. Who will come out on top?? I think that for now, they'll be really close in objectives, with CDO likely being a bit in the lead, but when you compare the ways their two regions handle subs historically, it seems very likely Cesar Chavez will end up leading CDO by maybe a thousand points -- probably around 47.5k to 46.5k, I think. Subs are always up in the air, but it certainly gives a big disadvantage to CDO score-wise between the two.

But otherwise, I think Decker is right -- the region winners are (mostly) clear, and it all comes down to who takes 2nd and 3rd in each. So let's explore!!

Region I:
Their Round 1 scores are close, but I think Kingman Academy will probably continue their five-year regional championship streak. Third is less certain, but James Madison Prep had a relatively good year last year (not sure if they'd ever broken 30k before), and could either keep that 31k or keep growing to win. On the other hand, Prescott could also easily take third place, or maybe even higher, if they're doing better this year.

1. Kingman Academy - 33k
2. St. Johns - 33k
3. James Madison Prep - 31k

Region II:
We already established Cesar Chavez as the winner for Region II, but second and third seem to be much less definite. Boulder Creek seems to be in about the same shape as last year, but BASIS Peoria is much stronger than in the previous season and could easily edge them out of their second place spot (which is what I think will happen). On the other hand, we could see another surprise showing from Alhambra like last year, so we can't count them out!

1. Cesar Chavez - 47.5k
2. BASIS Peoria - 39k
3. Boulder Creek - 38.5k

Region III:
Again, the winner here is hardly doubtful, but second and third could prove interesting. Mountain View Marana, while not as strong as the past couple of years, is still in the running, but even more interestingly is how Desert View seems to be doing -- a team in its third year, it's improved tremendously so far this season, and winning second place is not out of the question. Which would be huge for them! Of course, there are other contenders like Buena, Marana and Sonoran Science Academy to watch out for, but I think Desert View and Mountain View Marana will come out on (just-under-)top.

1. Canyon del Oro - 46.5k
2. Desert View - 35k
3. Mountain View Marana - 34.5k

Region IV:
Always the most competitive, even if they don't have a run for the state title, Region IV is where most of the 40k teams will be competing. And this year, along with the more familiar names at the top, I think we'll be seeing a new 40k'er -- Seton Catholic! First or second in any of the other regions, I think they'll take fourth here, but it could very well end up much closer than I'm expecting and switch around a bit. Hamilton will almost certainly come out on top, and Westwood and MVM near each other behind them. Should be very interesting competition to watch.

1. Hamilton - 44k
2. Westwood - 42k
3. Mountain View Mesa - 41.5k
4. Seton Catholic - 40.5k
5. BASIS Chandler - 39.5k

--------

What does everyone think? I hope everyone's preparations and studiment are coming along well!!

Very solid predictions. Assuming a difficulty level somewhat similar to Texas, I agree with most of your predictions. I think you have the order right, but numbers-wise I'd say Chavez will be a little bit lower (due to subjectives, not the objective tests), CDO will be a tiny bit lower (Piper will, of course, be the top scoring student in the state), and I think Seton Catholic and MV Mesa will be switched, or at least neck and neck. Only time will tell...I'm excited! This is the most uncertainty we've had at the top of the AZ standings in...gosh...I don't know how long!

This post has been edited by nixonotis: Jan 30 2018, 11:34 PM

[The Evil Dr. Cal...]

I think these are pretty decent predictions. I think that Cesar Chavez will be very slightly ahead of us.

Chavez: 46,800
CDO: 46,400

My #2 honor will not be competing at regionals due to health issues, but is pretty sure she'll be ready for state. I think it's going to be super close this year. Chavez has a great team, and mine is more like Piper and the 8 dwarves.

[The Evil Dr. Cal...]

Piper sets a new state record:9,481.7.

[The Evil Dr. Cal...]

46,578 CDO
43,626 Hamilton
42,618 César Chavez
42,012 Westwood
41,125 Mesa Mountain View

[acadecker]

Region IV -- Congratulations to Hamilton, this year's Region IV winner!

43,625.8 Hamilton
42,011.8 Westwood
41,125.1 Mountain View Mesa
38,461.0 Seton Catholic Preparatory
38,212.8 Skyline
35,548.6 Basis Chandler
34,872.5 Higley
34,155.2 Red Mountain
33,691.9 Dobson
32,620.1 Basha
30,973.4 Williams Field
29,423.0 Marcos De Niza
29,128.3 Chandler
28,432.7 Mesa
28,113.2 Casteel
26,192.2 Campo Verde
25,507.2 Desert Ridge
23,740.5 Gilbert Classical Academy
23,474.2 Combs
22,218.7 Fountain Hills
11,792.0 ASU Poly (not a complete team)

Super Quiz Relay

1st - Mountain View Mesa
2nd - Seton Catholic Prep
3rd - Three way tie--Basis Chandler, ?? Sorry . . . forgot

10 - Event Individual winners (names of teams--don't have individual names other than two):

Varsity Bronze - Skyline
Varsity Silver - Hamilton
Varsity Gold - Mountain View Mesa

Scholastic Bronze - Westwood
Scholastic Silver - Hamilton
Scholastic Gold - Seton Catholic Prep (Dillon) 7,496.8

Honors Bronze - Hamilton
Honors Silver - Hamilton
Honors Gold - Hamilton -- 8,908.8 Lena

This post has been edited by acadecker: Feb 4 2018, 01:19 AM

[The Evil Dr. Cal...]

Ten Event Scores in Arizona, Region III

Honor:
9,481.7 Piper Gray, Canyon del Oro
8,006.9 Kailee Savage, CDO
7,545.0 Luke Sorensen, Marana

Scholastic:
8,016.0 Carter Hollings, CDO (freshman)
7,367.1 Isabell Gray, CDO (freshman, Piper's sister)
7,185.7 Allienna Nezelek, CDO

Varsity:
7,197.9 Zachariah Hobby, CDO
6,508.6 Javier Lopez, CDO
6,491.4 Michael Cox, CDO

[The Evil Dr. Cal...]

AZ Region III Teams:

46,578.2 Canyon del Oro
34,578.9 Cibola
33,332.6 Marana
33,325.6 Marana Mountain View
33,190.4 Buena
33,121.7 Desert View
32,739.7 Benson
31,918.1 Gila Ridge
31,778.9 Sunnyside
29,977.2 Flowing Wells
(and 6 others)

Note the difference in scores between teams 3 - 6!

[Guest_korunic_*]

Some misc things if anyone’s interested:
5-way math perfect score for honors in Region IV
Essay scores seemed really sketchy...2nd place honors was like 808pts and there were a LOT of scores below 500.
Gap between overall 3rd honors (Jane from Hamilton) and 4th honors (Gordon from Westwood) was only 2 points.
Top varsity math score (Nathan (not Bergman obviously but found it very funny)) from Westwood was a 914.3.
Will post WW scores later.

EDIT: also for names in R4:
V1: Mason Krause
V3: Savage Hess

S2: Zuzia Stuechly
S3: Kayla Dickerson

H2: Jacob Nance
H3: Jane Wang

This post has been edited by korunic: Feb 4 2018, 02:13 AM

[The Evil Dr. Cal...]

Top AZ Schools

Region School Score
III Canyon Del Oro 46578.2
IV Hamilton HS 43625.8
II Cesar Chavez 42618.3
IV Westwood HS 42011.8
IV Mountain View Mesa HS 41125.1
IV Seton Catholic HS 38461
IV Skyline HS 38212.8
II Basis Peoria 36168
II Boulder Creek 36083.9
IV Basis Chander 35548.6
IV Higley HS 34872.5
III Cibola 34578.9
IV Red Mountain HS 34155.2
IV Dobson HS 33691.9
III Marana 33332.6
III Mountain View 33325.6
II Maryvale 33239.2
I St. Johns 33223.6
III Buena 33190.4
III Desert View 33121.7
II Alhambra 33065.1
III Benson 32739.7
IV Basha HS 32620.1
I Kingman Academy 32508.2
II South Mountain 31979.8
III Gila Ridge 31918.1
III Sunnyside 31778.9
I BASIS Scottsdale 31775.3
II Betty Fairfax 31315.2
I Prescott High School 30984.5
IV Williams Field HS 30973.4
II Deer Valley 30000.7
III Flowing Wells 29977.2
IV Marcos De Niza HS 29523
II Mt. Ridge 29358.6
I James Madison 29351.7
I Show Low 29258.6
IV Chandler HS 29128.3
IV Mesa HS 28432.7
IV Casteel HS 28113.2
II Sandra Day OConnor 28081.6

[stanleytree]

Ten Event Scores in Arizona, Region III

Honor:
9,481.7 Piper Gray, Canyon del Oro
8,006.9 Kailee Savage, CDO
7,545.0 Luke Sorensen, Marana

Scholastic:
8,016.0 Carter Hollings, CDO (freshman)
7,367.1 Isabell Gray, CDO (freshman, Piper's sister)
7,185.7 Allienna Nezelek, CDO

Varsity:
7,197.9 Zachariah Hobby, CDO
6,508.6 Javier Lopez, CDO
6,491.4 Michael Cox, CDO

You have some great scholastics for the next four years! Good golly.

[The Evil Dr. Cal...]

Yeah, except Isabell is probably going to try cheerleading next year, instead of Decathlon.

[TinDefacto]

Congrats to Piper!! That is amazing! As Sam pointed out to me, she's now the highest-scoring student in history outside of California and Texas too. (Would've beat Texas until this year!)

I'll post more thoughts (and full scores on ADSIC) soon, but may I just say, wow, subs look like they were brutal across all four regions. Even CDO (with the highest subs) didn't cross 15k on their counting team. Seton was second with just under 14k. That's, like, almost worse than Wisconsin!! Also, Hamilton's Honors squad looks insanely impressive; go them.