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> Arizona Regionals
BearMan
post Jan 29 2012, 04:03 AM
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Happening next weekend! I am super excited to be scoring my first region, definitely looking forward to it. Predictions? Anybody think they can compete with TX scores?


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Stanley Tree
post Jan 29 2012, 04:28 AM
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I see CDO leading at 44-45k, Westwood 2nd around 43k, and Mountain View Mesa not too far behind that in third.


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BearMan
post Jan 29 2012, 05:01 AM
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QUOTE (Stanley Tree @ Jan 28 2012, 09:28 PM) *
I see CDO leading at 44-45k, Westwood 2nd around 43k, and Mountain View Mesa not too far behind that in third.


I think you forgot Red Mountain at 50k, didn't you? wink.gif


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Allan21996
post Jan 29 2012, 06:20 AM
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i can see arizona competing with wisconsin and being a close 3rd to texas.

This post has been edited by Allan21996: Jan 29 2012, 06:21 AM


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Herohito
post Jan 29 2012, 07:39 AM
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Not an especially powerful year for Arizona, but still pretty competitive.
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Research Monkey
post Jan 29 2012, 08:01 AM
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CDO will be lagging behind the CA/TX schools, with Westwood in traditional MVM/RM territory, with Mountain Pointe, South Mountain, and Cesar Chavez behind them. In that order.


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Cody
post Jan 29 2012, 01:47 PM
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Hamilton was leading Mountain Pointe and South Mountain in scrimmages.
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Herohito
post Jan 29 2012, 05:58 PM
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QUOTE (Cody @ Jan 29 2012, 06:47 AM) *
Hamilton was leading Mountain Pointe and South Mountain in scrimmages.

I highly doubt Hamilton will keep up the momentum.
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Stanley Tree
post Jan 29 2012, 06:17 PM
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Yea, I don't buy Hamilton either; great honors, but the other 4 are averaging around 33xx at round 1. That translates to about a bunch of 55xxs. With two people above 8k, that puts them in the 38k range, respectable, but not where MP will probably be.


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Research Monkey
post Jan 29 2012, 06:50 PM
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QUOTE (Cody @ Jan 29 2012, 06:47 AM) *
Hamilton was leading Mountain Pointe and South Mountain in scrimmages.


Actually, Mountain Pointe was about 1200 points ahead of Hamilton at the scrimmage they both competed at in early January.


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Research Monkey
post Jan 29 2012, 06:55 PM
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QUOTE (Stanley Tree @ Jan 29 2012, 11:17 AM) *
Yea, I don't buy Hamilton either; great honors, but the other 4 are averaging around 33xx at round 1. That translates to about a bunch of 55xxs. With two people above 8k, that puts them in the 38k range, respectable, but not where MP will probably be.


I could see them running up a little higher, especially if the tests are easy as they seem to be reputed to be. I think their top honors, Stephen, has shown he can decimate easier tests, but has a tougher time with harder exams, so I'm curious to see how he does. On his day, he could be the top honors in the region.

Good program, though, and I wouldn't count them out from anything, but I don't think they have the consistency of SM or CC.


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Herohito
post Jan 29 2012, 07:32 PM
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QUOTE (Research Monkey @ Jan 29 2012, 11:55 AM) *
QUOTE (Stanley Tree @ Jan 29 2012, 11:17 AM) *
Yea, I don't buy Hamilton either; great honors, but the other 4 are averaging around 33xx at round 1. That translates to about a bunch of 55xxs. With two people above 8k, that puts them in the 38k range, respectable, but not where MP will probably be.


I could see them running up a little higher, especially if the tests are easy as they seem to be reputed to be. I think their top honors, Stephen, has shown he can decimate easier tests, but has a tougher time with harder exams, so I'm curious to see how he does. On his day, he could be the top honors in the region.

Good program, though, and I wouldn't count them out from anything, but I don't think they have the consistency of SM or CC.

Hamilton really isn't an especially well-rounded team though. They only shine in honors. This year, their scholastics especially seem to be lacking.
The Hamilton program really pales in comparison to any of the top consistently well-rounded teams. They just don't have scholastics or varsities that are as good as their honors.

This post has been edited by Herohito: Jan 29 2012, 07:36 PM
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me194
post Jan 29 2012, 08:24 PM
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QUOTE (Herohito @ Jan 29 2012, 12:32 PM) *
QUOTE (Research Monkey @ Jan 29 2012, 11:55 AM) *
QUOTE (Stanley Tree @ Jan 29 2012, 11:17 AM) *
Yea, I don't buy Hamilton either; great honors, but the other 4 are averaging around 33xx at round 1. That translates to about a bunch of 55xxs. With two people above 8k, that puts them in the 38k range, respectable, but not where MP will probably be.


I could see them running up a little higher, especially if the tests are easy as they seem to be reputed to be. I think their top honors, Stephen, has shown he can decimate easier tests, but has a tougher time with harder exams, so I'm curious to see how he does. On his day, he could be the top honors in the region.

Good program, though, and I wouldn't count them out from anything, but I don't think they have the consistency of SM or CC.

Hamilton really isn't an especially well-rounded team though. They only shine in honors. This year, their scholastics especially seem to be lacking.
The Hamilton program really pales in comparison to any of the top consistently well-rounded teams. They just don't have scholastics or varsities that are as good as their honors.



I'm not going to argue that this has been true of our team in the past, particularly last year. We have relatively rampant grade inflation for freshmen and sophomores as well as uber-present athletics that make it very difficult to recruit top-flight scholastics and varsities. Last year, we had the second highest overall honors scores (4th and 5th overall for H1/2), yet only finished 14th at state.

This year, though, I think we might surprise people. Looking forward to competing again this weekend...we'll see how things go.

Oh, and RM: I still scored ~5600 on USAD Hard exams, with 80% of my drop from R1 coming in Math. Should be a tight race at the top...I know Westwood has great honors this year, and our H2 (not at our last scrimmage) has been kicking it into high gear ever since I beat him back in November.



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Herohito
post Jan 29 2012, 08:28 PM
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Hamilton certainly looks much more competitive than it was last year, I'll give you that.
I suppose we'll just see next week.
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acadecker
post Jan 29 2012, 08:55 PM
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Gee, I hope you are correct about those predictions--I could live with that order. We've finished in 2nd place three out of the past five years at Regionals (and finishing 1st once), and two of those times were incredibly close; I cannot even begin to speculate on what GOOD will happen--I am usually too worried about what can/will go wrong.

Onetime, we came in 2nd by 89 points. This was AFTER I made the coordinators of the tournament look for and find the missing interview score sheets for one of my varsities. They say they finally found it, but I never did see it for myself. Another time, it came down to a third read on an Essay, and the third reader went more towards the lower of the two original scores--and that was the difference between 1st and 2nd. We also watched our 5 question lead evaporate during a Super Quiz, with the winning team answering the last 16 questions correctly to win by a single question, not only the Super Quiz Relay, but the entire competition.

So . . . I am reticent to predict order of finish between us, Chavez, Boulder Creek, Deer Valley, North Canyon, etc.; however, I AM quite happy to not be in CDO's Region, and I am also quite happy to not be in the other Regional with Mountain View, Red Mountain, Mountain Pointe, Hamilton, and Westwood.

Good luck to all of you, and remember that hard work pays off. Stephen, I apologize to you and your coach. I had intended for our teams to get together over break, but I had personal issue going on at home that precluded my getting my act together in time to put something like that together. Perhaps with enough planning, we could put something together for our teams for either state preparation or even during the summer or next fall as we prepare for next year.

This post has been edited by acadecker: Jan 29 2012, 09:00 PM


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Herohito
post Jan 29 2012, 09:03 PM
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Ah yes. The joys of Region 4.
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me194
post Jan 29 2012, 09:16 PM
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QUOTE (acadecker @ Jan 29 2012, 01:55 PM) *
Good luck to all of you, and remember that hard work pays off. Stephen, I apologize to you and your coach. I had intended for our teams to get together over break, but I had personal issue going on at home that precluded my getting my act together in time to put something like that together. Perhaps with enough planning, we could put something together for our teams for either state preparation or even during the summer or next fall as we prepare for next year.


No problem at all--and that sounds very intriguing. We'd be happy to set something up--we were planning on taking the DD silver tests between R2 and R3. Figure those will give us a good gauge of where we stand.

All the best to you and your team at Regionals--looking forward to meeting again at (or before!) state.


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BearMan
post Jan 29 2012, 10:42 PM
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QUOTE (Herohito @ Jan 29 2012, 02:03 PM) *
Ah yes. The joys of Region 4.


I'm pretty excited to see if Westwood can take it for the first time this year. I remember being pretty excited when my team broke MVM's streak, I always like a david beating the goliath now and again smile.gif


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Herohito
post Jan 29 2012, 10:55 PM
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QUOTE (BearMan @ Jan 29 2012, 03:42 PM) *
QUOTE (Herohito @ Jan 29 2012, 02:03 PM) *
Ah yes. The joys of Region 4.


I'm pretty excited to see if Westwood can take it for the first time this year. I remember being pretty excited when my team broke MVM's streak, I always like a david beating the goliath now and again smile.gif

I once took a look at the Region 4 rotating trophy winning teams.
It made me sad.

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Research Monkey
post Jan 31 2012, 03:44 PM
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QUOTE (me194 @ Jan 29 2012, 01:24 PM) *
I'm not going to argue that this has been true of our team in the past, particularly last year. We have relatively rampant grade inflation for freshmen and sophomores as well as uber-present athletics that make it very difficult to recruit top-flight scholastics and varsities. Last year, we had the second highest overall honors scores (4th and 5th overall for H1/2), yet only finished 14th at state.

This year, though, I think we might surprise people. Looking forward to competing again this weekend...we'll see how things go.

Oh, and RM: I still scored ~5600 on USAD Hard exams, with 80% of my drop from R1 coming in Math. Should be a tight race at the top...I know Westwood has great honors this year, and our H2 (not at our last scrimmage) has been kicking it into high gear ever since I beat him back in November.


Unfortunately, the varsity problem is one that is pretty rampant in Arizona, if not the nation as a whole. Both my junior and senior years we had to demote an H3 that scored over 8,200 at region because they were challenged by an H4 and lost, yet we never squeezed more than 12,000 out of our combined V1 and V2. We had six kids in two years break 8,000, but couldn't buy a 7,000 varsity when a couple of those would have seen us pushing 47,000. The ability to deal with those problems we all face and turn varsities into solid performers is why teams like Mountain View and Canyon Del Oro are so successful.

I know Mountain Pointe has been surprised enough by Hamilton in the past such that I don't think anyone too familiar with the East Valley will make that mistake. That said, considering how long it has been since Hamilton has posted a 40k finish, I don't know if your varsity students quite have the grasp of what their role in your success is. I may be wrong, but in my experience competing on, captaining, assistant coaching, and then coaching a top-heavy East Valley team, I think there's work to be done. But isn't there always?

Oh, and I mean absolutely no disrespect of your testing numbers, I don't think I've seen numbers that high since Kevin He posted 6100+ on Round 3 and still got mercilessly brutalized by Jakob Hansen. My point is just that math scores are always volatile, and even if you're really good at math and the math tests are easier than in the past, you can never expect good scores on math. And again, no disrespect, but USAD Hard weren't too too difficult from what I saw, and you rightfully beat up on a pretty weak field of honors, but you've been through all this before, though, so I think you have a clear idea of what you need to do to claim the top slot in Region IV.

Anyway, stop reading my long rambling posts on the internet and get to work tongue.gif there are Mesa schools to be beaten!


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