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> Texas State 2012, Who will take it?? pt.2
Who will win the Texas state championship?
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Pearland (46,689) [ 12 ] ** [38.71%]
Katy Taylor (46,242) [ 8 ] ** [25.81%]
Rockwall (46,134) [ 8 ] ** [25.81%]
Nimitz (44,912) [ 2 ] ** [6.45%]
Seven Lakes (44,197) [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]
Cinco Ranch (44,123) [ 1 ] ** [3.23%]
Total Votes: 31
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Stanley Tree
post Jan 29 2012, 06:50 PM
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So we're inching ever closer to Texas' grand finale. Definitely been an exciting year so far, and with 3 teams within 500 of each other, anything really can happen.

Each team has its strengths at the top, whether it's all the Katy teams and their honors (Taylor, SL, CR), or Rockwall and their fantastic scholastics, and Pearland and Nimitz with its relative balance accented by a very strong specific category (Pearland's varsities, Nimitz's scholastics). Lots of reasons to pick a school, and none of them would be wrong. Taylor has the recent history of big jumps, as well as Rockwall, but with the exception of Rockwall's year last year when they broke 50k, none of them were this high at regionals. This begs the question as to whether they were already hitting a bit harder this year or not. The last few times Pearland has been first coming out of regional, they didn't move much but still got the win.

Lots of factors going into state this year, especially the always nagging issue of the large v. medium/small meet subs. Something really needs to be done about this, because I know I won't be comfortable if the large school wins with inflated subs, and I'll be upset if the medium school wins with the same. Very frustrating.

My final guess:

1. Pearland 49.6k
2. Taylor 49.2k
3. Rockwall 48.9k
4. Seven Lakes 47.8k
5. Nimitz 47.7k
6. Cinco Ranch 46.5k

Another thing to think about is how well Texas has done at regionals so far this year. This is the first time we've had three teams over 46k at regionals since the uber-inflated year of 2000. That's 12 years, pretty impressive. I think the competition at the top will allow Texas to send yet another team that will be able to compete with Cali. I just hope it's enough for once.

Also, recognize my built-in bias smile.gif


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2017 Texas Large School State Champion
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Pearland High School '08
2008 Team State champion
2008 Varsity State champion

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Herohito
post Jan 29 2012, 07:39 PM
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QUOTE (Stanley Tree @ Jan 29 2012, 11:50 AM) *
Also, recognize my built-in bias smile.gif

But of course.
Nevertheless, I'd say Pearland has the best chance.
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magicblueman
post Jan 29 2012, 08:28 PM
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I'd put Cinco a little higher. A 9k honors in Rd. 2 plus being less than 100 points behind SL is major motivation, I'd think. It reminds me of Taylor in 2010, when they jumped Dobie for 2nd place.


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Tad Walters
post Jan 29 2012, 09:08 PM
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QUOTE (magicblueman @ Jan 29 2012, 02:28 PM) *
I'd put Cinco a little higher. A 9k honors in Rd. 2 plus being less than 100 points behind SL is major motivation, I'd think. It reminds me of Taylor in 2010, when they jumped Dobie for 2nd place.

UGH.


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Stanley Tree
post Jan 29 2012, 09:17 PM
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I would tend to agree, but Cinco has the biggest weaknesses of the top 6. I mean, a second scholastic and varsity below 6k? Ouch. If they had the narrowest of talent and dedication there, I'd see them top 3.


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Academic Decathlon Coach, Dulles High School
2017 Texas Large School State Champion
AP World History teacher
Former Varsity Head Coach, Girls Soccer


Pearland High School '08
2008 Team State champion
2008 Varsity State champion

“It’s all these guys. They’ve been with us for a while. They believe in each other. They put up with me and go out and do it better the next day. They’ve got the courage of a lion.” - Frank Martin
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madcap
post Jan 29 2012, 10:56 PM
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QUOTE (Stanley Tree @ Jan 29 2012, 04:17 PM) *
I would tend to agree, but Cinco has the biggest weaknesses of the top 6. I mean, a second scholastic and varsity below 6k? Ouch. If they had the narrowest of talent and dedication there, I'd see them top 3.


They can (and probably will) get some of the largest score increases out of these two people, actually. Like last year, when they went from 36k to 42k.


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madcap
post Jan 30 2012, 01:34 AM
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Last year, Andrew (Stanley Tree) rolled out this new prediction method I've grown quite fond of. Let's call this prediction method "applying historical score changes." When Andrew first used it - http://demidectalk.com/index.php?showtopic=1369, he did a superb job predicting the actual results.

School --- 2011 Prediction --- 2011 Actual Score
J. Frank Dobie --- 50,234 --- 50,469.7
Rockwall --- 49,792 --- 50,152.2
Seven Lakes --- 48,706 --- 48,862
Friendswood --- 46,250 --- 46,669.6

We get these numbers by calculating an average "gap closure" (percent change in points not gained) for performance over the last 4 years. Then we apply that gap closure to the regionals score... to predict the state score. Here are average gap closures for all the major contenders.

School --- Regional Score --- State Score --- Gap Closure (%)
Pearland
2011 41,145 44,680 18.748%
2010 43,045 45,207 12.751%
2009 46,517 47,245 5.399%
2008 50,606 50,595 -0.117%
Average Gap Closure: 9.196%

James E. Taylor
2011 42,869 47,482 26.928%
2010 43,308 47,523.1 25.252%
2009 44,816 46,670 12.21%
2008 45,709 45,814 0.735%
Average Gap Closure: 16.281%

Rockwall
2011 46,856 50,152.2 25.078%
2010 43,186 46,532.5 19.903%
2009 42,256 45,833 20.159%
2008 42,142 43,132 5.544%
Average Gap Closure: 17.671%

Nimitz
2011 43,990 44,449 2.867%
2010 43,795.90 45,212.4 8.742%
2009 45,224 45,451 1.536%
2008 46,000.90 47,724 12.309%
Average Gap Closure: 6.363%

Seven Lakes
2011 45,725 48,862 21.975%
2010 44,945.50 47,974.20 20.118%
2009 43,741 45,741 12.301%
2008 44,291 47,941.00 23.235%
Average Gap Closure: 19.407%

Cinco Ranch
2011 36,615 42,218 23.96%
2010 40,196 42,264 10.442%
2009 41,450 43,223 9.558%
2008 39,538 40,474 4.574%
Average Gap Closure: 12.134%

This post has been edited by madcap: Jan 30 2012, 01:41 AM


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QUOTE (Abuelo)
I really try not to make it sound like a religious experience when I talk about Academic Decathlon, but it isn't easy.
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madcap
post Jan 30 2012, 01:39 AM
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Column A = State score projected using that school's lowest gap closure (from the four years analyzed)
Column B = ...highest gap closure
Column C = ...average gap closure (the most successful prediction method)

School --- Regional Score ------------ A ------------ B ----------- C
1) Rockwall............: 46,134 ------ 46,902.7 --- 49,611.3 --- 48,584.2
2) James E. Taylor..: 46,241.6 --- 46,342.7 --- 49,946.4 --- 48,481.6
3) Pearland............: 46,688.7 --- 46,673.1 --- 49,184.3 --- 47,912.7
4) Seven Lakes......: 44,196.8 --- 46,140.7 --- 47,868.7 --- 47,263.8
5) Cinco Ranch.......: 44,123.2 --- 44,849.5 --- 47,927.3 --- 46,049.6
6) Nimitz...............: 44,911.7 --- 45,143.5 --- 46,768.9 --- 45,871.8

This post has been edited by madcap: Jan 30 2012, 01:46 AM


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QUOTE (Abuelo)
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Herohito
post Jan 30 2012, 01:58 AM
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Hmm, that sounds like an interesting method.
I'll definitely try it on Arizona teams after next week.
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Danton
post Jan 30 2012, 04:14 AM
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QUOTE (madcap @ Jan 29 2012, 07:39 PM) *
Column A = State score projected using that school's lowest gap closure (from the four years analyzed)
Column B = ...highest gap closure
Column C = ...average gap closure (the most successful prediction method)

School --- Regional Score ------------ A ------------ B ----------- C
1) Rockwall............: 46,134 ------ 46,902.7 --- 49,611.3 --- 48,584.2
2) James E. Taylor..: 46,241.6 --- 46,342.7 --- 49,946.4 --- 48,481.6
3) Pearland............: 46,688.7 --- 46,673.1 --- 49,184.3 --- 47,912.7
4) Seven Lakes......: 44,196.8 --- 46,140.7 --- 47,868.7 --- 47,263.8
5) Cinco Ranch.......: 44,123.2 --- 44,849.5 --- 47,927.3 --- 46,049.6
6) Nimitz...............: 44,911.7 --- 45,143.5 --- 46,768.9 --- 45,871.8


Ok, Gear, no more sandbagging. Looks like Rockwall is the favorite going into the state meet. Now the pressure is on. jaw-dropping.gif
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Tad Walters
post Jan 30 2012, 09:29 AM
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This is cut throat competition. I say right now it's a toss up between Rockwall(Which may get the advantage of inflated subs), Pearland(A balanced team with a few veterans that could increase immensely) and Katy Taylor(A team renown for their epic score jumps from Region to State as well as their beastly honors i.e Zhang and Stevenson). Each team has its strengths and weaknesses. Can't wait until the end of February. popcorn.gif popcorn.gif popcorn.gif popcorn.gif popcorn.gif


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Tad Walters
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Stanley Tree
post Jan 30 2012, 02:04 PM
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Don't compare my beat with his...
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Considering we were already so high in '08, I wouldn't really consider the negative gap closure an issue there. You should probably reference our last couple of years in relation to gap closure.

And just because somewhat arbitrary numbers claims a leader, doesn't mean they're the "leader" wink.gif


--------------------
Academic Decathlon Coach, Dulles High School
2017 Texas Large School State Champion
AP World History teacher
Former Varsity Head Coach, Girls Soccer


Pearland High School '08
2008 Team State champion
2008 Varsity State champion

“It’s all these guys. They’ve been with us for a while. They believe in each other. They put up with me and go out and do it better the next day. They’ve got the courage of a lion.” - Frank Martin
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kplay6809
post Jan 30 2012, 03:13 PM
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Out of curiosity, what is the Large/Medium/Small cutoff in TX? If I recall correctly, Rockwall is "Medium", but competed in Large eNats. In WI, West is ranked DI in State, DII at Nats, and would be a Medium at eNats. And they are much larger than we are.


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nil
post Jan 30 2012, 03:34 PM
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QUOTE (kplay6809 @ Jan 30 2012, 09:13 AM) *
Out of curiosity, what is the Large/Medium/Small cutoff in TX? If I recall correctly, Rockwall is "Medium", but competed in Large eNats. In WI, West is ranked DI in State, DII at Nats, and would be a Medium at eNats. And they are much larger than we are.


As of now:
UIL Cutoffs/Texas State Decathlon:
Small: 0-989
Medium: 990-2064
Large: 2065+

USAD Nationals Cutoffs:
Small: 0-650
Medium: 651-1300
Large: 1301+

These numbers may change within the next week when UIL comes out with the new alignments for the next 2 years, though this won't affect this year's competition.
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kplay6809
post Jan 30 2012, 04:59 PM
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QUOTE (nil @ Jan 30 2012, 09:34 AM) *
QUOTE (kplay6809 @ Jan 30 2012, 09:13 AM) *
Out of curiosity, what is the Large/Medium/Small cutoff in TX? If I recall correctly, Rockwall is "Medium", but competed in Large eNats. In WI, West is ranked DI in State, DII at Nats, and would be a Medium at eNats. And they are much larger than we are.


As of now:
UIL Cutoffs/Texas State Decathlon:
Small: 0-989
Medium: 990-2064
Large: 2065+

USAD Nationals Cutoffs:
Small: 0-650
Medium: 651-1300
Large: 1301+

These numbers may change within the next week when UIL comes out with the new alignments for the next 2 years, though this won't affect this year's competition.

Whoa. WI has less than ten schools in that Large realm, and only one fields a Decathlon team (mediocre at best). Good to know.


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Gear
post Jan 30 2012, 05:40 PM
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QUOTE (Stanley Tree @ Jan 30 2012, 08:04 AM) *
Considering we were already so high in '08, I wouldn't really consider the negative gap closure an issue there. You should probably reference our last couple of years in relation to gap closure.

And just because somewhat arbitrary numbers claims a leader, doesn't mean they're the "leader" wink.gif

Unless the arbitrary numbers point to Pearland wink.gif


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tryingtothinkaga...
post Jan 30 2012, 05:49 PM
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QUOTE (Stanley Tree @ Jan 30 2012, 08:04 AM) *
Considering we were already so high in '08, I wouldn't really consider the negative gap closure an issue there. You should probably reference our last couple of years in relation to gap closure.

It also might be more useful to look strictly at objective score changes. While our total score went down, which would seem to imply that we got worse at the subject, our objective score in '08 went up 1182 points between region and state. Changes in subjective scores are much harder to predict.


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QUOTE (BearMan @ Feb 2 2012, 01:52 PM) *
oO You must have been a godly varsity.
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madcap
post Jan 31 2012, 03:52 AM
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I thought quite a bit about throwing out 2008, and someone asked, so here are projections based on 2009-2011 performances only.

1) Taylor - 49,194.6
2) Rockwall - 49,144.8
3) Pearland - 48,326.0
4) Seven Lakes - 47,062.2
5) Cinco Ranch - 46,449.7
6) Nimitz - 45,572.8

I agree that these look more likely. Bump Nimitz up 1k, bonk Seven Lakes down 1k, and that's my personal prediction. Go Texas! =D

This post has been edited by madcap: Jan 31 2012, 03:53 AM


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madcap
post Jan 31 2012, 04:00 AM
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For anyone who wants to use that prediction model, here are the formulas... someone do Wisconsin?

Gap closure for one year (decimal value)

GC = 1 - (60,000 - R3) / ( 60,000 - R2)

Project Round 3 Score, given Round 2 score and gap closure

R3 = R2 + ((60,000 - R2) * GC)

This post has been edited by madcap: Jan 31 2012, 04:01 AM


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JackLosiStrader
post Jan 31 2012, 04:41 AM
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I doubt that model would go that well in Wisconsin. The Eisenhower program is relatively new to the whole "good at Acdec" thing. Our past score increases are probably quite unreliable, as the program was quite different every year before this one.


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