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> College Basketball, No CBAs here.
eric...
post Jan 21 2012, 05:59 PM
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QUOTE (Research Monkey @ Jan 20 2012, 09:38 PM) *
I won't argue that the RPI probably condemns the conference to two bids, but where I disconnect is at the point that Pomeroy's number 9 conference is validates the discounting of the teams higher up in the rankings. As I understand it, his rankings do take into account the strength of the opponents they play, and the differences between the SEC and the Pac-12 seem more distinct in the bottom third than in the part of the conference competing for a bid.

The SEC has 7 teams (of 12) in the top 100, and then the remainder are 102, 116, 130, 139, and 196. The Pac 12 has 8, albeit with 3 in the 90s, but then the remaining four are 114, 161, 179, and 331. Obviously Utah is utterly useless, and USC and ASU have been pretty embarrassingly weak, but my impression is that within the, say, top 9 teams in each conference, the rest of the SEC is rewarded for having Kentucky playing so much better than everyone else, while it appears everyone in the Pac 12 is punished for being more evenly balanced among the realistic contenders (not in Pomeroy's rankings, but in general). Oregon is listed 53rd in RPI, and could lose back-to-back games against Cal and Stanford and still wind up with 23 wins, but I would be astonished if they were considered for an at large bid. Maybe they were fortunate to win the "play Utah twice" lottery, and their losses to Virginia, Vandy and BYU weren't especially close, but the RPI suggests they deserve consideration and I'm convinced they won't get any.


it doesnt matter where oregon is in the rpi NOW. all that matters is where theyre going to FINISH, how many top 50 wins that includes, whether at least one is on the road and whether they finish at or near the top of the pac 12 regular season standings (advancing to the tournament final would probably help, too). and, short of winning a ton of games down the stretch, they arent going to finish with an rpi where it is now, arent going to have many (if any) top 50 wins and arent going to finish at the top of the conference standings. thats not an ncaa tournament resume.

on pomeroy, your general argument was that pac 12 doesnt suck; pomeroys conference ratings agree with me that, on the whole, it does. historically so. but what youre still missing is that pomeroys ratings dont particularly 'like' the top of the pac 12, either. again, the ratings favor teams that have the athletic abilities to blow out below average opponents regardless of their abilities to win games against good ones. ucla and arizona are poster boys for this kind of preference. there are sec teams getting this kind of preference, too. the only difference is that while the pac 12 has ONE team with a pomeroy rating that would suggest theyre actually good (and comfortably inside the bubble), the sec has FOUR. if thats not an appreciable difference at the top of the leagues, i dont know what is.

could the pac 12 get a third bid if it proves less balanced than it appears at this point? sure. but thats not a sign of bias because ncaa bids and ap rankings arent handed out on the basis of conference affiliation. its the fault of the pac 12 having its parity among bubble/nit-caliber teams and not legitimately good ones. (i also dont understand why you keep singling out kentucky in the sec when alabama, florida and now-healthy vanderbilt all have resumes more impressive than cals).
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eric...
post Jan 22 2012, 03:20 PM
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QUOTE (debator @ Jan 22 2012, 10:13 AM) *
as you guys certainly know already, a great undefeated team got its first loss yesterday. it's okay, though, cuz they'll still be ranked next week and i'm confident they'll win the tournament come march. RIP stags' perfect record.


d3 basketball sucks on the west coast, too.
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Research Monkey
post Jan 24 2012, 07:27 AM
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QUOTE (eric... @ Jan 21 2012, 10:59 AM) *
(i also dont understand why you keep singling out kentucky in the sec when alabama, florida and now-healthy vanderbilt all have resumes more impressive than cals).


I guess this is the only thing that I'm not sold on. Vanderbilt beat Marquette, okay. That puts them up in having a current top 25 win.

Florida doesn't strike me as very good despite their sexy offensive numbers, but I guess they beat a possibly tricky FSU, an Arizona team with a pulse, and then...uh...LSU? Yale? A&M? Despite those five all being at home, I don't mind saying that that probably puts them up as better than Cal, but they strike me as an unworthy #13.

But 13-6 Alabama? They beat Purdue, VCU, Oklahoma State, Maryland and LSU at home and Georgia and Georgia Tech on the road. Right now, those teams are (in increasing order) 36, 49, 80, 114, 139, 141, and 159 in Pomeroy. Stanford topped UCLA, Oklahoma State, North Carolina State and Colorado at home and Oregon State away at 54, 61, 66, 97, and 114. Oregon beat UTEP, Stanford and UCLA at home and Nebraska, Washington State and Arizona away, at 52, 60, 61, 108, 127, and 130. Cal beat Georgia, Weber State and UCLA at home and Oregon and Washington on the road at 61, 85, 103, 122, 141.

I get that their RPI is 28 and their Pomeroy is 18. What I don't see is where the clear delineation of superiority is. Is it in the fact that two are in the top 50? Would two 45s be more impressive than three 60s? Five 80s? There has to be a percentage chance a team will beat another team of a given strength all other factors constant, so I'm a reluctant to accept the idea that one of two teams with the same average difficulty of opponent has a better run of games because the variance of one is slightly higher. Maybe Arizona and UCLA are artificially inflated in Pomeroy for the reasons you mentioned, but are the likes of Maryland and LSU not?

I don't see the grounds for a claim to be made that Alabama's resume is better other than comparing their respective best wins solely in terms of toughest opponent, and even then, I don't see an appreciable difference over Cal, or really Stanford or Oregon. Yet Alabama is projected an 8 seed up against Harvard while Cal is projected #9 against Virginia and Stanford has been dropped to a First Four date for the right to play UConn. I dunno, maybe that prediction is based on everyone's favorite RPI that currently has Seton Hall at #7.

This post has been edited by Research Monkey: Jan 24 2012, 07:30 AM


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Research Monkey
post Feb 9 2012, 04:57 AM
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That was an absurdly good game.


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Research Monkey
post Feb 9 2012, 05:15 AM
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I was watching more of the Kansas-Baylor game instead, which was surprisingly lopsided.


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Research Monkey
post Feb 9 2012, 04:01 PM
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Research Monkey
post Mar 5 2012, 12:27 AM
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http://games.espn.go.com/tournament-challe...p;entryID=93891

Group name: DDT
Password: ddt


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Research Monkey
post Mar 14 2012, 08:29 PM
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I think this year will be relatively predictable towards the end of the line. At the start, I think a lot of upsets might occur in the typical 5/12 (Harvard, VCU and LB State are tough outs and I think Cal matches up well against Temple--just sayin') to 7/10 (honestly think Florida is going down) range, but I think the top teams are head and shoulders above the rest of the field, with relatively few outliers (Memphis and Belmont, to name a couple under-seeded teams) sticking out to me.

This post has been edited by Research Monkey: Mar 14 2012, 08:29 PM


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eric...
post Mar 15 2012, 02:07 AM
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QUOTE (Research Monkey @ Mar 14 2012, 04:29 PM) *
I think this year will be relatively predictable towards the end of the line. At the start, I think a lot of upsets might occur in the typical 5/12 (Harvard, VCU and LB State are tough outs and I think Cal matches up well against Temple--just sayin') to 7/10 (honestly think Florida is going down) range, but I think the top teams are head and shoulders above the rest of the field, with relatively few outliers (Memphis and Belmont, to name a couple under-seeded teams) sticking out to me.


im sure cal matches up really well against temple.

(oh, and a great showing by arizona against my bison! how bout that pac 12?)
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Research Monkey
post Mar 15 2012, 01:16 PM
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At this point, I can accept defeat, or talk up Colorado's chances at an upset.

I think I'm going to call it a season, Pac-12.















NEXT YEAR, UCLA, NUMBER ONE RECRUITING CLASS EVER, PAC-12 REVIVAL: IMMINENT

QUOTE (debator @ Mar 15 2012, 05:58 AM) *
QUOTE (Research Monkey @ Mar 4 2012, 05:27 PM) *

yo more people should join this in the next three hours or whatever


Seriously, get in on this.


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beregond
post Mar 16 2012, 11:32 PM
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QUOTE (debator @ Mar 16 2012, 10:52 PM) *
well, smurf.

LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL
(I had Mizzou winning it all goddamnit)


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eric...
post Mar 16 2012, 11:37 PM
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...i wouldnt want to have a shift in the shipping department of the norfolk st campus bookstore on monday. if history is any precedence, half the state of kansas is ordering a shirt right now.
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Research Monkey
post Mar 17 2012, 12:07 AM
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I think I'm going to start choosing my brackets by coin tosses next year.


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eric...
post Mar 17 2012, 01:28 AM
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QUOTE (Research Monkey @ Jan 19 2012, 03:26 AM) *
Are we really supposed to believe that Utah, USC, and Washington State are weaker punching bags than pinatas like Towson (an impressive 0-19 on the season, of which only 3 were by single digit margins), William & Mary (4-14, including a 25 point slaughter by Leigh Mountain and Missouri dropping 94 on them in their only game against a big six conference team), and Hofstra (6-13, whose season was highlighted by a three-game winning streak over Binghampton, Colgate, and Iona, none of which I have ever heard of)? But do you think that of George Mason, VCU, ODU, and Georgia State, only one will make the tournament? I'd be surprised.


and the research monkey displays his basketball brilliance yet again....

go patriot league!
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blondie13
post Mar 17 2012, 02:33 AM
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QUOTE (Research Monkey @ Mar 16 2012, 07:07 PM) *
I think I'm going to start choosing my brackets by coin tosses next year.


I did that this year and it failed horribly. Don't do it.


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Research Monkey
post Mar 17 2012, 03:29 AM
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QUOTE (eric... @ Mar 16 2012, 06:28 PM) *
QUOTE (Research Monkey @ Jan 19 2012, 03:26 AM) *
Are we really supposed to believe that Utah, USC, and Washington State are weaker punching bags than pinatas like Towson (an impressive 0-19 on the season, of which only 3 were by single digit margins), William & Mary (4-14, including a 25 point slaughter by Leigh Mountain and Missouri dropping 94 on them in their only game against a big six conference team), and Hofstra (6-13, whose season was highlighted by a three-game winning streak over Binghampton, Colgate, and Iona, none of which I have ever heard of)? But do you think that of George Mason, VCU, ODU, and Georgia State, only one will make the tournament? I'd be surprised.


and the research monkey displays his basketball brilliance yet again....

go patriot league!


Still bad.



But, uh, yeah, USC is pretty bad.



QUOTE (blondie13 @ Mar 16 2012, 07:33 PM) *
QUOTE (Research Monkey @ Mar 16 2012, 07:07 PM) *
I think I'm going to start choosing my brackets by coin tosses next year.


I did that this year and it failed horribly. Don't do it.


I think that means you flipped the coin wrong.

This post has been edited by Research Monkey: Mar 17 2012, 03:30 AM


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Research Monkey
post Mar 17 2012, 04:12 AM
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I immediately texted my friends at Duke to taunt them after the UNC game, but it almost felt uncharitable to do it here.


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dizzyizzy
post Mar 17 2012, 08:44 AM
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I totally forgot to make a bracket.
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Research Monkey
post Apr 12 2012, 12:33 AM
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PAC-12 IS GONNA BE AWESOME NEXT YEAR DON'T EVEN THINK OTHERWISE GONNA SHABAZZ ALL OVER EVERYONE'S FACES


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michelangelo
post Jan 12 2013, 04:42 PM
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I had to dig to find this thread, but I knew it would be here somewhere. I'm just sitting here getting pumped for the Minnesota @ Indiana game, which starts in 17 minutes. It's tough to pick up a W at Indiana's Assembly Hall, but the Gophers definitely create some match up problems for the Hoosiers. A win here would propel Minnesota into the top 5 for next week's Michigan game in The Barn.

A loss would just suck.

Halftime Edit: The first half of the game has been played, and, well, Indiana is a really smurfing good basketball team.

This post has been edited by michelangelo: Jan 12 2013, 05:52 PM


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